Morpho/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Divergence

Summary
• Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at 1.95 and closed at 1.994 on 2025-11-10, after hitting a 24-hour high of 2.02 and a low of 1.933.
• Price action showed a volatile upward bias after 19:30 ET, with volume increasing to over 61,000 units.
• RSI reached overbought territory at 75, while volume surged, indicating potential momentum divergence.

Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at 1.95 at 11:00 PM ET on 2025-11-09 and closed at 1.994 by 12:00 PM ET on 2025-11-10. The pair reached a high of 2.02 and a low of 1.933, with a total trading volume of 618,500 units and a notional turnover of $1,234,600.

Structure & Formations
The price action displayed a volatile 24-hour profile with a significant bearish retracement from 2.02 to 1.933, followed by a sharp rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET, followed by a bullish reversal around 20:00 ET, indicating short-term indecision. A strong bullish harami pattern at 05:45 ET marked a potential reversal zone. Key support levels appear to form around 1.98–1.99, while resistance is consolidating at 2.00–2.02.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1.991) is above the 50-period MA (1.986), suggesting a potential bullish crossover. The 50-period MA (1.989) is above the 100-period MA (1.981) and the 200-period MA (1.985), indicating a short-to-medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI
The MACD line (0.006) crossed above the signal line (0.002), forming a bullish crossover in the positive territory. The RSI reached a high of 75, entering overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback may occur. However, the divergence between RSI and price action indicates bullish momentum could persist.

Bollinger Bands
Price action moved close to the upper band between 19:30 and 20:15 ET, indicating heightened volatility and strength. The bands expanded significantly, confirming a period of high volatility. The closing price (1.994) is positioned near the mid-band, suggesting consolidation is likely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover
The highest volume was recorded at 20:00 ET (61,850 units), coinciding with the sharp rebound to 2.011. Turnover increased in tandem, confirming the price action. A volume divergence occurred between 22:45 and 23:00 ET, where volume dropped despite a price increase—suggesting weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements
Key Fibonacci levels of 38.2% (1.974) and 61.8% (1.999) were tested during the 24-hour period. Price action found support at 1.974 before rebounding toward 1.999, indicating a potential consolidation phase at these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy hinges on identifying bearish engulfing candlestick patterns and exiting at a fixed price of 1.99 or a percentage-based stop. While MORPHOUSDT showed bearish engulfing patterns at 19:30 ET, the pair reversed sharply afterward, potentially invalidating the strategy. The exit at 1.99 support may have captured a short-term downturn, but given the subsequent bullish move, the strategy’s effectiveness could be limited without dynamic stop-loss rules. A percentage-based rule may yield better results, capturing more volatile swings.