Morpho/Tether Market Overview for October 14, 2025

• MORPHOUSDT fell 15.7% in 24 hours, closing at 1.802 after a sharp sell-off in the early hours.
• Price tested 1.76 support multiple times, rebounding to form a potential bullish reversal pattern.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting short-term exhaustion but not a trend reversal.
• Volume surged during the 07:00–08:00 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show increased volatility and price near the lower band, hinting at a potential bounce.

Market Summary

Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at 1.988 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.802 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour high reached 2.01, while the low fell to 1.745. Total volume amounted to 7,106,046.91, with a notional turnover of approximately 13,504,145.79. The pair has seen increased volatility and directional clarity amid a sharp bearish move.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours reveals a strong bearish bias, with a key support level forming around 1.76–1.77. This area was tested multiple times, particularly between 07:00 and 09:00 ET, with a potential bullish reversal forming at the 1.76–1.78 range. The 1.80–1.81 area appears as a short-term resistance. A notable pattern includes a morning star-like formation around 06:45–08:00 ET, suggesting a potential countertrend bounce, though it remains unconfirmed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the late hours of October 13, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover and declining histogram. RSI has dipped below 30 for much of the day, reaching as low as 16, indicating overbought conditions. However, the RSI has shown some divergence in the last 6 hours, as price continued to fall while RSI flattened slightly. This suggests a potential pause in the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show an expansion in volatility since the early hours of October 14, with price testing the lower band multiple times. The current price of 1.802 is close to the lower band, which could encourage a short-term bounce. A sustained move above the middle band would indicate a potential trend reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the selloff between 07:00–09:00 ET, with volume reaching over 200,000 per 15-minute interval. This confirms the bearish momentum during that period. However, in the last 6 hours, volume has decreased, indicating a slowdown in selling pressure. Turnover also peaked in the early hours before declining, aligning with the bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.765 to 2.01 shows the current price at approximately 61.8% of that move. This is a key psychological level, and a break below 1.765 would take the pair into the 78.6% retracement zone. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels align near 1.80 and 1.77, respectively, which could offer directional guidance in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators discussed—particularly RSI and MACD—suggest a strategy based on RSI-driven entries and exits could be relevant in this context. A potential backtest would involve entering long when RSI dips below 30 (standard oversold level) and exiting when RSI crosses back above 50. Given the recent bearish exhaustion in MORPHOUSDT, this strategy could test the effectiveness of using RSI to capture short-term rebounds from oversold conditions. A 20-period MA filter could also be added to ensure the trend is not too bearish for a meaningful rebound.