Pulso matutino del mercado: Trump retrasa aranceles, Bitcoin en una encrucijada

The pre-market session sees mixed signals as U.S. index futures hover near flat territory. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edge slightly higher, the Dow futures remain under pressure, reflecting sector-specific jitters. Commodity markets tell a clearer story: WTI crude oil dips 0.64% to $57.05, signaling energy sector caution, while gold surges 1.36% to $4,400.10 and silver rockets 4.17% to $73.55, highlighting a flight to safety amid geopolitical tensions and inflation fears. This duality—energy weakness vs. safe-haven strength—sets a cautious tone for the day. Here’s what to watch.

1. Trump Delays Tariff Hikes on Furniture & Cabinets

President Trump’s one-year delay of tariffs on furniture and cabinets offers short-term relief to retailers and manufacturers grappling with supply chain bottlenecks. While this softens immediate inflationary pressures, it also underscores his balancing act between campaign promises and economic pragmatism. For stocks like COP (COP) and EXE (EXE), this delay could stabilize input costs, but long-term investors should watch for retaliatory moves from China, which remains a wildcard.

2. Bitcoin Consolidates as $3,100 Looms

Bitcoin’s $2,900–$3,100 range is a psychological battleground. A break above $3,100 could trigger $629M in short liquidations, but a drop below $2,900 risks $972M in long liquidations. With the Fed’s policy decisions looming, crypto investors are on edge. This consolidation phase is critical for institutional money to decide whether to bet on a breakout or a breakdown.

3. Palantir’s ESO Strategy Fuels $430B Valuation

Palantir’s ($PLTR) $430B valuation is no accident. Its aggressive ESO strategy ties employees to long-term growth in AI and defense tech, aligning incentives with high-margin contracts. As the U.S. ramps up its tech-driven military spending, PLTR could see further inflows, but its valuation remains a stretch for risk-averse investors.

4. TRUMP Coin’s $94M Cash Out Sparks Scrutiny

TRUMP Coin’s $94M USDC liquidity exit raises red flags. While it’s a classic crypto play, the lack of regulatory clarity and Trump’s political profile make this a high-risk bet. Regulators are likely to scrutinize this move, which could ripple into other politically linked tokens.

5. Iran Offers Crypto Payments for Military Contracts

Iran’s pivot to crypto for arms sales is a game-changer. By bypassing U.S. sanctions, it’s creating a parallel financial system. This could normalize crypto use in illicit trade, complicating global efforts to track conflict-related financing. For now, it’s a niche story, but one to monitor as crypto’s role in geopolitics grows.

6. Trump’s Energy & Defense Policies Impact Key Stocks

Trump’s 2026 agenda—prioritizing fossil fuels and military expansion—poses a clear tailwind for XOM (XOM) and FANG (FANG). Conversely, green energy and tech stocks could face headwinds. Investors should watch for sector rotation as policy details crystallize.

7. China Strengthens Anti-Independence Stance

Beijing’s hardline messaging on Taiwan and Hong Kong is a reminder of its geopolitical ambitions. While this hasn’t yet triggered a market selloff, it adds to the risk of regional instability. For now, the focus is on how U.S. allies respond, particularly Japan and South Korea.

8. Aurobindo Pharma Completes INR3.25B Acquisition

Aurobindo’s ($ABP) INR3.25B acquisition is a strategic move to dominate the generic drug market. With global demand for affordable pharma rising, this could boost R&D and market share. However, regulatory hurdles in key markets like the U.S. remain a risk.

9. Elon Musk’s xAI Sues Apple and OpenAI Over Antitrust

Musk’s lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI is a shot across the bow for Big Tech. If successful, it could reshape AI’s competitive landscape, but the legal battle is a long game. For now, it’s more about signaling than substance.

10. Samsung Heavy Wins $499M LNG Ship Deal

Samsung Heavy’s ($SHI) $499M LNG contract underscores the energy transition’s momentum. As LNG replaces coal and oil, SHI is well-positioned to benefit. This deal also highlights the geopolitical importance of energy infrastructure in 2026.

Ticker/Company Watchlist

• COP (COP): Watch for cost stability post-tariff delay.
• PLTR (PLTR): Monitor ESO-driven growth vs. valuation sustainability.
• XOM (XOM): Energy policy tailwinds could boost margins.
• TRUMP Coin: Scrutiny risks liquidity crunches.
• SHI (SHI): LNG demand could drive long-term gains.

Analyst Summary

The market is in a holding pattern, with Trump’s policy shifts and crypto’s volatility as the main drivers. Analysts are split: some see Trump’s tariff delay as a short-term win for retailers, while others warn of long-term trade war risks. On crypto, the $3,100 threshold for Bitcoin is a make-or-break moment. Meanwhile, defense and energy stocks are gaining traction as geopolitical tensions escalate. The overall tone is cautiously optimistic, but with a watchful eye on regulatory and macroeconomic triggers.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s calendar is packed with geopolitical fireworks: China’s military exercises near Taiwan, Russia’s escalation in Ukraine, and G7/EU moves to ban Russian maritime services. Investors should also keep an eye on gold’s $4,400 level and the Fed’s policy timeline. With so many moving parts, risk management—especially in volatile sectors like crypto and defense—will be key.