Pulso del mercado matutino: La crisis de liquidez criptográfica de Trump y una subida de $4K del oro

The pre-market mood is cautiously bearish as commodities crumble and crypto volatility spikes. Index futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are all down 0.3–0.5%, pointing to a weak open amid lingering concerns over Trump’s memecoin liquidity crisis and global geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil tumbled 0.93% to $57.41, gold fell 1.24% to $4,332.10, and silver imploded 8.9% to $70.98—highlighting a flight from risk assets. The broader market tone suggests investors are bracing for a volatile session, with eyes on Trump’s crypto fallout and gold’s record-breaking surge. Here’s what to watch today.

1. Trump’s Crypto Airdrop & Memecoin Liquidity Shock

A $94 million liquidity withdrawal from TRUMP memecoin has sent shockwaves through the crypto market. The sudden outflow—linked to Trump’s 2024 campaign and speculative hype—exposes the fragility of politically branded tokens. This event could deter institutional investors and amplify regulatory scrutiny, especially as the SEC and FTC remain silent. For now, the broader crypto market is in retreat, with silver’s 8.9% collapse underscoring panic in niche tokens.

2. ARK Funds Outperform as Magnificent Seven Shine

Cathie Wood’s ARKX ETF surged 48.46% in 2025, driven by AI and space stocks. This outperformance signals a shift toward innovation-driven sectors, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) as key beneficiaries. The rally reflects growing confidence in tech’s resilience, even as macroeconomic risks persist. However, ARK’s concentrated bets on speculative growth stocks remain a double-edged sword.

3. Gold Surges Past $4,000 Amid De-Dollarization

Gold hit $4,332.10 as central banks in China, Russia, and India ramped up purchases. The surge reflects a global shift away from the U.S. dollar, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears. This trend could weaken U.S. economic influence and boost gold’s role as a geopolitical hedge. For now, gold’s momentum suggests further gains unless tensions de-escalate.

4. Fed Absorbs $106B in Reverse Repo, Signals Liquidity Stress

The Fed’s $106 billion reverse repo operation highlights ongoing demand for short-term liquidity. This move underscores banking system fragility and the Fed’s role in stabilizing markets. While it may delay rate cuts, the operation also signals that banks are reluctant to lend freely—a red flag for credit conditions.

5. Bitcoin Predicted for 2025 Breakout Amid Institutional Adoption

Analysts expect Bitcoin to break out in 2025, fueled by regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds. A potential Bitcoin ETF approval and de-dollarization trends could push BTC toward $100,000. This would ripple through tech and gold markets, but volatility remains a risk until institutional adoption solidifies.

6. US-China Tariff Delays Ease Trade Tensions

The U.S. delayed tariff hikes on furniture and cabinets, signaling trade policy flexibility. This move eases short-term inflationary pressures but raises questions about enforcement priorities. For now, it’s a win for retailers and manufacturers, but long-term trade tensions with China remain unresolved.

7. BYD’s Record Sales Signal EV Market Momentum

BYD’s 420,398 December sales highlight China’s EV dominance. The company’s global expansion and government support position it as a key player in the EV race. Western automakers like Tesla (TSLA) face growing pressure to accelerate their transitions, but BYD’s production scalability and battery tech give it a clear edge.

8. US Jobless Claims Fall Below 200K, Reinforces Labor Market Strength

Jobless claims dropped to 199,000, reinforcing the labor market’s resilience. This could delay Fed rate cuts and bolster consumer spending. However, low layoff rates also raise concerns about overheating, which could reignite inflationary pressures.

Ticker/Company Watchlist

• ARKX (ARKK): Monitor AI and space stock exposure as ARK’s outperformance continues.
• BYD (BYD): Track production scaling and international expansion plans.
• MSFT, NVDA: Watch for AI-driven earnings surprises.
• TRUMP (TRUMP): Assess liquidity recovery and regulatory response.
• Gold (XAU): Keep an eye on central bank buying and geopolitical risks.

Analyst Summary

Today’s market sentiment is a mix of caution and optimism. While Trump’s crypto crisis and gold’s surge highlight macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, ARK’s outperformance and BYD’s momentum signal strong demand for innovation-driven sectors. The Fed’s liquidity interventions and gold’s de-dollarization trend suggest a tug-of-war between risk-off and risk-on forces. Investors should brace for volatility but remain positioned for AI and EV sector gains.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s calendar is packed with geopolitical and economic fireworks: China’s military exercises near Taiwan, Putin’s Russia-Ukraine offensive, Trump’s Iran threats, and G7/EU moves to ban Russian oil exports. These events could trigger sharp market swings, particularly in energy, defense, and tech sectors. Investors should also watch for updates on the HHS child care payment freeze and Meta’s AI infrastructure plans. With so many moving parts, staying agile will be key.