Las recomendaciones de J.P. Morgan para el año 2026: Oculis y los activos clave de Alphabet, así como su valoración actual.

The setup for 2026 is one of cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan's equity research team argues that resilient corporate fundamentals and easing financial conditions support further upside for U.S. equities, translating into a constructive outlook for the S&P 500. The firm's projection is notably aggressive, calling for above-trend earnings growth of 13-15% for at least the next two years, with a 2026 EPS target of $315. This outlook is underpinned by a specific view on digital trends, where the AI revolution is seen as far from played out.

Heading into the new year, the firm remains constructive on overall digital trends & Internet secular leaders, with AI once again the primary focus. The momentum from 2025, where platforms executed on AI across ads and search, is expected to continue, driving another solid year of revenue growth. However, the path isn't without friction; operating income and free cash flow are anticipated to be more mixed as companies balance growth with key investments, particularly in GenAI.

In this favorable but selective environment, J.P. Morgan has identified two specific 'Strong Buy' recommendations. The first is Oculis Holding (OCS), a Swiss biopharma company. The pick is driven by its pipeline catalysts, with multiple pivotal trials advancing, including a Phase 3 readout for its diabetic macular edema drug expected in the second quarter of 2026. The second pick is Alphabet (GOOGL), cited for its execution on AI. The thesis here centers on Alphabet's ability to leverage its full-stack AI innovation-from infrastructure to consumer products-to maintain its dominant position and unlock new monetization, as evidenced by the rollout of its latest Gemini 3 model.

Deep Dive: Oculis Holding (OCS) - Biopharma Catalysts and Financial Runway

Oculis presents a classic biotech investment thesis: a concentrated pipeline of high-stakes catalysts backed by a substantial financial runway. The near-term setup is defined by two pivotal trials advancing in parallel, creating multiple potential inflection points for the stock.

The centerpiece is the Phase 3 DIAMOND program for its lead asset, OCS-01, in diabetic macular edema. The topline results for this trial are expected in the second quarter of 2026. This readout is a binary event that could validate the company's core platform and unlock significant commercial potential in a large, established market. The company has already provided positive interim data, with expanded analyses from the Phase 3 Stage 1 program highlighting efficacy across various patient subgroups.

Simultaneously, the pipeline is diversifying with Privosegtor, a neuroprotective therapy for optic nerve conditions. Following a successful meeting with the FDA, Oculis has accelerated development into a pivotal PIONEER program. This includes three concurrent trials for acute optic neuritis and non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy. The path was cleared by positive Phase 2 ACUITY results, which demonstrated clinically meaningful visual function improvement and were presented in a late-breaking session at the EURETINA Congress in September. The PIONEER program is designed for operational efficiency, with the first two trials expected to initiate in late 2025 and early 2026.

This aggressive clinical execution is fully funded. As of September 30, 2025, the company held $182.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. This was bolstered by a recent $110 million financing. Management has stated this combined capital extends the cash runway into 2029. This provides ample time to navigate the upcoming trials without near-term dilution risk, a critical advantage for a company operating in the high-pressure environment of late-stage biopharma development.

The bottom line is a company at an inflection point. With a clear path to multiple pivotal readouts over the next 18 months and a balance sheet that can fund them, Oculis offers a concentrated bet on clinical success. The financial runway mitigates execution risk, allowing the market to price the stock on the binary outcomes of its pipeline rather than its cash burn.

Deep Dive: Alphabet (GOOGL) - AI Leadership and Revenue Growth

Alphabet's 2026 thesis is built on a durable moat and a clear path to monetizing its full-stack AI innovation. The company's structural advantages are not just about having a model; they are about having a complete, integrated system that accelerates execution and protects its core franchises.

The rollout of advanced models like Gemini 3 is central to this strategy. This latest generation enhances reasoning and multimodal capabilities, pushing the boundaries of what AI can do for complex tasks. The key is that Alphabet isn't just releasing a model-it's embedding it across its entire ecosystem. From the Gemini app to enterprise tools like Vertex AI, this deep integration allows for rapid iteration and user adoption. The result is a virtuous cycle: more users generate more data, which fuels further model improvement, all while strengthening the company's platform dominance.

This execution translates directly into revenue growth. J.P. Morgan anticipates that mega-cap internet leaders like Alphabet will deliver low-to-mid teens year-over-year revenue growth in 2026. This projection is supported by the company's financials. In the third quarter of 2025, Alphabet posted its first-ever $100-billion-plus quarter, driven by a powerful combination of its core advertising engine and a rapidly scaling cloud business. Google Ads alone generated $74.2 billion, while Google Cloud grew 33.5% to $15.16 billion, fueled by enterprise AI workloads.

The company's scale and logistics footprint provide a durable competitive moat that will be critical as AI spending intensifies. This isn't just about data centers; it's about the operational and network advantages that come with serving billions of users and managing a global infrastructure. This full-stack approach-from leading infrastructure to consumer products-creates a barrier that is difficult for rivals to replicate. For investors, this means Alphabet is positioned to capture a disproportionate share of the AI-driven growth, using its immense cash flow to fund both near-term investments and long-term innovation.

Comparative Analysis and Investment Implications

The two picks present starkly different risk/reward profiles, reflecting J.P. Morgan's broader thesis of selective opportunity. Oculis offers a high-stakes, binary bet on clinical execution, while Alphabet provides exposure to the sustained, structural growth of AI monetization. The primary upside catalyst for both, however, is a continuation of easing financial conditions.

For Oculis, the risk/reward is defined by its pipeline. The company is executing on a diversified set of late-stage trials, with the pivotal DIAMOND Phase 3 readout for OCS-01 in diabetic macular edema expected in the second quarter of 2026. Success here could validate its topical eye drop platform in a large market. The risk is the inherent uncertainty of clinical development, where a negative result would likely trigger a sharp de-rating. This binary nature is mitigated by a substantial financial runway. With $182.2 million in cash and liquid assets as of September 30, 2025, plus a recent financing, management projects the cash buffer extends into 2029. This provides the luxury of time to navigate the upcoming trials without near-term dilution, allowing the stock to trade on the binary outcomes of its catalysts rather than its cash burn.

Alphabet, by contrast, offers a lower-risk, higher-visibility path to growth. Its thesis is built on leveraging a full-stack AI advantage across its advertising and cloud businesses. The company is already demonstrating this, with Google Cloud growing 33.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. The risk here is more about valuation and execution at scale. The market is pricing in continued leadership, but any sign that AI spending is peaking or that competition is eroding its moat could pressure the stock. The key watchpoint is the pace of monetization; Alphabet must convert its technological lead into consistent, accelerating revenue growth to justify its premium.

The broader market context is critical for both. J.P. Morgan's constructive outlook hinges on the Federal Reserve's policy. The firm notes that should the Fed cut rates further, it sees greater upside for the S&P 500, with the index likely surpassing 8,000 in 2026. This easing environment would boost equity valuations across the board, providing tailwinds for both the high-beta biotech and the mega-cap tech leader. The primary risk to this setup is that AI itself shows signs of a bubble, leading to a sharp repricing. For Oculis, the execution risk is clinical; for Alphabet, it is commercial and competitive. In a market where the primary catalyst is monetary policy, both companies are positioned to benefit-but only if the underlying fundamentals hold.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch in 2026

The investment theses for both Oculis and Alphabet are now set against a clear calendar of events. For Oculis, the critical near-term catalyst is the topline results for its DIAMOND Phase 3 trial in diabetic macular edema, expected in the second quarter of 2026. This binary outcome will validate the core platform and determine the stock's immediate trajectory. Success here would be a major inflection point, while a negative readout would likely trigger a sharp de-rating. Beyond this, the execution of its diversified pipeline is key. The company has accelerated development of its neuroprotective therapy, Privosegtor, into a pivotal PIONEER program. The first two trials for acute optic neuritis and non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy are expected to initiate in late 2025 and early 2026, setting the stage for a series of potential data readouts over the next 18 months. The guardrail here is clinical execution and the efficient use of its substantial financial runway, which management projects extends into 2029.

For Alphabet, the catalysts are more about monetization and growth trajectory. The company is rolling out its latest AI capabilities, with Gemini 3 now available across Google products. The key watchpoint is how effectively this leads to new revenue streams. The monetization of AI Overviews and other consumer-facing features, alongside enterprise adoption of tools like Vertex AI, will be critical to converting technological lead into financial outperformance. The broader guardrail is adherence to the projected growth path. J.P. Morgan anticipates mega-cap internet leaders like Alphabet will deliver low-to-mid teens year-over-year revenue growth in 2026. The company must consistently hit this target, balancing investment in GenAI with the need to show accelerating top-line expansion.

The overarching macro condition to monitor is Federal Reserve policy. J.P. Morgan's constructive outlook hinges on this, with the firm noting that should the Fed cut rates further, it sees greater upside for the S&P 500, with the index likely surpassing 8,000 in 2026. This easing environment would provide a tailwind for equity valuations across the board, benefiting both the high-beta biotech and the mega-cap tech leader. The primary risk to the entire setup is that AI itself shows signs of a bubble, leading to a sharp repricing. For Oculis, the execution risk is clinical; for Alphabet, it is commercial and competitive. In a market where the primary catalyst is monetary policy, both companies are positioned to benefit-but only if the underlying fundamentals hold.