Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) Market Overview for October 5, 2025

• MOVR/USDT rose 4.48% in 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above key resistance at $5.65.
• Price found support at $5.61–$5.62 multiple times, with volume increasing during pullbacks.
• RSI reached overbought territory in the last 4 hours, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; price traded above the 20-period MA.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, confirming strength in the rally toward $5.79.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $5.523 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at $5.681 as of October 5, 12:00 ET, with a high of $5.815 and low of $5.616 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 119,469.88 MOVR, and notional turnover amounted to $671,943. The pair exhibited a clear upward bias, with multiple bullish signals emerging in the last 12 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bullish engulfing patterns forming around $5.63–$5.65 as buyers retook control after short-term pullbacks. A key support level at $5.61–$5.62 was tested three times, with increasing volume each time, indicating strengthening conviction. The most recent candlestick, a long bullish body with a small upper wick, suggests buyers are in control. A minor bearish doji emerged near $5.725 in the early hours of October 5, signaling indecision but ultimately failing to stall the upward move.

Moving Averages

MOVRUSDT remained above the 20-period (15-min) and 50-period (15-min) moving averages throughout the session, with the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA to form a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $5.52 and the 200-period MA at $5.48 suggest a longer-term bullish trend, with the 100-period MA at $5.50 reinforcing the positive bias. Price remains well above the 20-period MA at $5.635, indicating short-term momentum remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line around October 5 at 01:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram expanded for the next 6 hours, aligning with the rally above $5.75. However, the RSI reached overbought territory above 70 in the last 4 hours, suggesting potential for a pullback or consolidation. A bearish divergence was observed as the RSI failed to reach new highs after the $5.75 level, indicating caution for overbought conditions. A pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $5.66 could test short-term conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after October 5 at 02:00 ET, as the Bollinger Bands widened from a 0.013 range to a 0.045 range. Price traded above the upper band for much of the morning, suggesting strong momentum. However, the narrowing bands in the final 3 hours indicate a potential slowdown in price movement, possibly leading to a temporary consolidation phase. The 20-period standard deviation hit a 24-hour high, confirming increased uncertainty and heightened trader activity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 03:00 ET, reaching a peak of 12,279.64 MOVR in the 05:00 ET candle, coinciding with the push above $5.75. Notional turnover mirrored this, reaching a high of $70,350 as price traded at $5.775. A divergence was observed in the final 45-minute candle, where volume decreased while price continued to trade higher, indicating potential exhaustion. The increase in volume during pullbacks to $5.61–$5.62 and $5.65–$5.67 suggests strong support from retail and institutional buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swing highs and lows were plotted from the October 4 high of $5.815 to the low of $5.616. The 38.2% retracement at $5.66 and the 61.8% at $5.73 were key levels for price action. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level at $5.73 before moving higher, confirming the strength of the bullish trend. A retest of the 38.2% level may offer a low-risk entry for bulls if the 5.65–5.67 range continues to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bullish engulfing patterns and volume surges during pullbacks, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($5.66), with a stop below the 50-period moving average. The strategy would target a 2.5% profit at $5.75 and trail the stop to breakeven after a 1.5% move in favor. This approach aligns with the recent volume expansion and RSI divergence, aiming to capitalize on continuation moves while managing risk in an overbought environment.