Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) Market Overview

• MOVR/USDT dropped sharply from $5.33 to $2.23 in a 15-minute candle before consolidation.
• Price found temporary support at $3.90–$4.00, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Volatility surged with a high-low range of $5.33–$2.23, indicating intense selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, hinting at potential bounce or range-bound trading.
• Downtrend remains intact, with key psychological support at $4.00 under threat.

Market Opening and Price Action

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $5.266 at 12:00 ET – 1, reaching an intraday high of $5.333 before collapsing sharply to a low of $2.232. The 24-hour close at $4.068 marked a continuation of bearish sentiment. The total volume was 689,794.81 MOVR, with a notional turnover of $2,719,979.19. The price action was marked by a sharp breakdown and aggressive bearish momentum early on.

Structure and Key Levels

The price structure showed a massive breakdown in the candle beginning at 2025-10-10 21:30:00, with a high of $4.469 and a low of $2.232. This marked the most significant bearish move of the 24-hour period. Key support levels have formed around $3.90 and $4.00, with $4.20–$4.30 acting as resistance. A long black candle on the 15-minute chart at 19:30:00 ET marked a 61.8% Fibonacci level from the previous bullish swing, indicating exhaustion in the short-term buyers.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were well above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD turned negative early in the breakdown and remained below zero, with the signal line crossing the MACD line to the downside. The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 for much of the period, suggesting the price may consolidate or rebound from current levels. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the breakdown, indicating heightened volatility and strong directional momentum.

Fibonacci and Volatility

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of $5.333 and swing low of $2.232 revealed that the 61.8% level ($3.94) has become a critical psychological floor. The 50% level ($3.78) appears to have offered minimal support, while the 38.2% level ($4.28) has acted as a key resistance. Bollinger Bands are now in a more neutral configuration, with the price hovering near the middle band, indicating a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when the price crosses above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss at the 20-period moving average and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Short positions are triggered when the price breaks below the 20-period moving average, with a stop above the 50-period MA and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This dual MA-Fibonacci approach is designed to capture short-term reversals and trends with defined risk and reward ratios.