Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) Market Overview

• MOVRUSDT traded in a tight range initially before a sharp midday decline, closing at 5.365 after a high of 5.472.
• Momentum indicators turned bearish midday as RSI dipped below 50 and MACD crossed into negative territory.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon as Bollinger Bands widened, coinciding with a 5.425–5.484 price swing.
• Turnover spiked in the early afternoon, reaching 5.484 USD with high-volume clusters at 5.425 and 5.446.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 1415 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at 5.349 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.472, and closed at 5.365 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The 24-hour trading volume was 456,817.41 USD, with a total turnover of 3.19 million USD. Price action showed a bearish bias after midday as sellers dominated key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish tilt after a midday peak at 5.472. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 1415 ET, indicating a short-term reversal. Key support levels appear to be forming at 5.35 and 5.32, with resistance clusters near 5.42 and 5.45. A morning session bullish flag was broken, and price retested the lower boundary of a descending triangle pattern, which may suggest a continuation of the downward trend if confirmed by volume.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have converged closely, suggesting consolidation in the mid to late morning. By midday, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from above, suggesting possible bearish momentum building over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

Momentum indicators turned bearish midday. The MACD crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover, with the histogram showing a sharp contraction in positive momentum. The RSI dipped below 50 to 46, indicating oversold conditions had not yet been reached, but bearish pressure was increasing. A potential divergence formed between price and RSI during the afternoon pullback, suggesting caution around 5.35.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the afternoon as the Bollinger Bands widened significantly. Price traded near the upper band in the early afternoon before a sharp drop brought it below the 20-period MA. A volatility contraction was observed just before the midday high, suggesting a possible breakout. Current price levels sit within the lower half of the bands, indicating a bearish bias and a potential test of the 5.30–5.32 support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early afternoon with a significant cluster of transactions between 5.425 and 5.484. Turnover spiked during this period, aligning with the price peak and the bearish engulfing candle. The divergence between high volume and bearish price action suggests conviction from sellers. As price dropped in the late afternoon, volume eased, indicating a possible exhaustion of bearish momentum or a lack of follow-through selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is located at 5.395, which acted as a resistance-turned-support level during the afternoon pullback. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels are at 5.44 and 5.40, respectively, both of which were tested and rejected. A potential target for the next leg lower would be the 61.8% level at 5.36, where current support is forming.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on confirming a bearish bias through a combination of price action, RSI, and volume signals. A sell entry would be triggered after a bearish engulfing pattern, with RSI below 50 and increasing volume. A stop-loss is placed above the 5.45–5.47 resistance cluster, while a target is set at the 5.32–5.35 support level. This setup aligns with the observed afternoon sell-off and provides a clear risk-reward structure, potentially validating the continuation of the bearish trend.