MDLZ Surges 3.2% on Analyst Upgrades and Cocoa Resilience – What's Next?

Summary
• Mondelez (MDLZ) rockets 3.2% to $69.64, outpacing 52W average of $64.40
• Analysts pile in: UBS, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies raise price targets to $72–$78
• Cocoa inflation and emerging markets growth drive earnings optimism
• Options frenzy: 5,280k shares traded, with 3833 contracts at $69 call

Mondelez International (MDLZ) is surging through a critical psychological level as a wave of analyst upgrades converges with resilient cocoa supply chains. The stock’s 3.2% intraday gain—capping a $68.26 low to $69.68 high range—reflects renewed confidence in management’s ability to navigate inflationary pressures while expanding its global footprint. With 26 analysts now projecting a $72.16 average price target, the question is whether this momentum is a short-term rebound or the start of a broader breakout.

Analyst Overhaul and Cocoa Resilience Ignite MDLZ
The surge stems from a coordinated analyst upgrade campaign and improved visibility in cocoa supply chains. UBS Group raised its target from $69 to $72, while Jefferies Financial Group upgraded from 'hold' to 'buy' with a $78 target. These moves followed Mondelez’s Q1 report showing 3.1% organic revenue growth despite 12% gross profit declines. The company’s ability to secure 91% certified cocoa through its Cocoa Life program has alleviated investor fears about supply chain volatility, even as cocoa inflation remains a headwind. Emerging markets expansion—adding 100,000 stores in Q1—further underpins growth optimism.

Packaged Foods Sector Trails MDLZ as PEP Climbs 7.4%
The broader Packaged Foods sector remains under pressure, with Pepsico (PEP) surging 7.4% on news of aggressive price hikes and regenerative agriculture investments. While MDLZ’s 3.2% gain lags PEP’s momentum, its focus on cocoa supply chain resilience differentiates it from peers like Conagra Brands, which faces margin compression from chicken wars. The sector’s 0.48 beta highlights defensive positioning, but MDLZ’s 13.5% premium to 200-day average suggests it’s outperforming on thematic strength.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on MDLZ’s Breakout Momentum
• MACD: 0.0707 (bullish divergence from 0.2465 signal line)
• RSI: 51.17 (neutral, but above 50 suggests upward bias)
• Bollinger Bands: 69.61 (upper) vs 65.97 (lower) – price near upper band
• 200-day MA: $65.18 (well below current price)
• Gamma: 0.243289 at $70 call (high sensitivity to price moves)

MDLZ’s technicals suggest a continuation pattern above 68.30 opening level. The stock is testing its 200-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement at $67.50. A break above 69.68 intraday high could target 70.50–71.50, aligning with 52W high of 76.06. For leveraged exposure, consider the $69.61 call (MDLZ20250725C69) and $70 call (MDLZ20250725C70):

• MDLZ20250725C69
– Code: MDLZ20250725C69
– Type: Call
– Strike: $69
– Expiry: 2025-07-25
– IV: 17.46% (moderate)
– Leverage: 58.59% (high)
– Delta: 0.6576 (moderate sensitivity)
– Theta: -0.1181 (rapid time decay)
– Gamma: 0.1919 (high sensitivity to price swings)
– Turnover: 3,833 (liquid)
– Payoff: At 5% upside (73.12), intrinsic value = $4.12 → 361.54% gain
– Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a 5% move, with liquidity to enter/exit.

• MDLZ20250725C70
– Code: MDLZ20250725C70
– Type: Call
– Strike: $70
– Expiry: 2025-07-25
– IV: 14.82% (moderate)
– Leverage: 131.55% (very high)
– Delta: 0.4429 (moderate sensitivity)
– Theta: -0.0902 (rapid decay)
– Gamma: 0.2433 (very high)
– Turnover: 3,036 (liquid)
– Payoff: At 5% upside (73.12), intrinsic value = $3.12 → 381.82% gain
– Why: Aggressive leverage and gamma make this ideal for a 5% move, with liquidity to enter/exit.

Bulls should target 69.68–70.50 as a key breakout zone. If 70.50 is breached, consider rolling into the $71 call (MDLZ20250725C71) for higher leverage.

Backtest Mondelez Stock Performance
The 3% intraday surge in MDLZ has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 52.12%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 49.14% and 49.76%, respectively. This suggests that while MDLZ may experience a positive reaction to an intraday surge, the overall medium-to-long-term performance may be more variable.

Bulls Target $70.50 as MDLZ Eyes Breakout – Act Now
The 3.2% surge is not a fluke but a calculated response to analyst upgrades and cocoa supply chain resilience. With 26 analysts averaging a $72.16 target and options liquidity concentrated at $69–$70 strikes, the path of least resistance is upward. Short-term resistance at 69.68 and 70.50 must be cleared to validate the breakout. For context, sector leader Pepsico (PEP) is surging 7.4% on its own momentum, but MDLZ’s cocoa narrative offers a unique tailwind. Act now: Buy the $69 call (MDLZ20250725C69) for a 361.54% gain potential if 73.12 is hit by 7/25. Watch for a breakdown below 68.30 to trigger defensive plays.