Moderna Surges 3.29% on $54.3M Vaccine Funding: Is This the Catalyst to Break the 52-Week Lows?

Summary
• Moderna (MRNA) surges 3.29% to $31.515, hitting an intraday high of $32.21
• CEPI funds pivotal Phase 3 trial for bird flu vaccine, mRNA-1018
• Options volume spikes 200% as traders bet on short-term volatility
• RSI at 78.23 signals potential overbought territory amid bullish momentum

Moderna’s stock ignited a 3.29% rally on December 18, 2025, driven by a $54.3 million funding boost from CEPI for its bird flu vaccine. The biotech sector remains in flux as HHS pivots away from mRNA research, but Moderna’s pivot to pandemic preparedness has reignited speculative fervor. With options turnover surging and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the question is whether this move marks a turning point for the mRNA pioneer.

CEPI Funding Ignites Hope for Pandemic Preparedness
Moderna’s 3.29% surge was catalyzed by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) committing up to $54.3 million to advance its H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, mRNA-1018, into pivotal Phase 3 trials. This funding follows the Trump administration’s abrupt cancellation of a $700 million HHS contract for the same vaccine in May 2025. The CEPI deal positions Moderna to lead global efforts in rapid-response mRNA vaccines, aligning with its 100 Days Mission to develop pandemic vaccines within 100 days of a threat. The news also underscores the growing geopolitical and public health urgency around avian flu, with Moderna pledging 20% of production to low-income countries at affordable pricing.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility with MRNY and Key Straddles
• 200-day MA: $27.53 (below current price)
• RSI: 78.23 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.29 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 31.73 (upper band), 26.57 (middle), 21.41 (lower)
• Support/Resistance: 24.64–24.80 (30D), 27.53–27.80 (200D)

Moderna’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD divergence hinting at momentum. The YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF (MRNY), up 1.09%, offers leveraged exposure to MRNA’s volatility. Key levels to watch: 32.21 (intraday high) and 30.61 (intraday low).

Top Options Picks:
1. MRNA20251226C32
• Type: Call
• Strike: $32
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 50.19% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 42.44% (high)
• Delta: 0.426 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.112 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.158 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 2,082,723 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% up): $0.425 per share (3.29% move implies $33.14 target)
• Why: High gamma and leverage make this ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring quick entry/exit.

2. MRNA20251226C33
• Type: Call
• Strike: $33
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 49.78% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 76.60% (very high)
• Delta: 0.280 (lower sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.085 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.137 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 1,225,975 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% up): $0.814 per share (3.29% move implies $33.14 target)
• Why: Aggressive leveraged play with high gamma for a sharp move, though delta suggests lower immediate directional bias.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider MRNA20251226C33 into a breakout above $32.21. Conservative traders should target MRNA20251226C32 for a controlled rally.

Backtest Moderna Stock Performance
The backtest of Moderna (MRNA) after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows poor performance. The 3-day win rate is 49.34%, the 10-day win rate is 46.68%, and the 30-day win rate is 40.93%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was -0.19%, indicating that the stock experienced a loss even after the intraday surge.

Breakout or False Dawn? Watch 32.21 and 30.61 for Clarity
Moderna’s 3.29% surge hinges on whether the CEPI funding translates into sustained momentum. Technicals favor a short-term rally, with RSI overbought and Bollinger Bands suggesting a potential retest of the 32.21 intraday high. However, the 200-day MA at $27.53 remains a critical support. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN), down -0.585%, highlights biotech’s mixed performance, but Moderna’s pandemic pivot could carve a unique path. Watch 32.21 for a breakout confirmation and 30.61 for a breakdown alert. Traders should prioritize MRNY and the selected options for volatility plays, while long-term investors may wait for a pullback to 27.53 before committing.