Moderna's Mixed Bag: A Beat That's 'Not A Beat'

Moderna (MRNA) stock surged in premarket trading on Thursday, only to give up most of its gains after the company reported third-quarter results that, while better than expected, fell short of investor hopes. The biotechnology giant crushed earnings expectations, but revenue missed estimates, leading to a muted reaction from investors. Let's dive into the details and analyze the implications for Moderna's future growth.

Moderna reported earnings of 3 cents per share, flipping from a year-earlier loss of $9.53 per share and beating analyst projections of a $1.94 per-share loss. Revenue also handily beat expectations, with $1.9 billion in sales, driven by its Covid shot, Spikevax, and the RSV vaccine, mResvia. However, analysts project continued losses in the upcoming quarters as Moderna invests in its portfolio and platform.



Moderna's Covid vaccination market remains sizable and durable, with 19 million vaccinations administered this season, ahead of the same period last year. The company's CFO, Jamey Mock, noted a motivated population seeking protection, indicating a robust market for COVID vaccinations. Despite the RSV vaccine, mResvia, missing sales projections, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine remains a significant driver of its recent performance.



The delayed RSV vaccine approval and market competition significantly impacted Moderna's stock price. The company's approval for mResvia in late May 2024 led to missing the majority of the contracting season, with competitors Pfizer and GSK already securing most contracts. This timing issue, coupled with intense market competition, contributed to a 69% slump in Moderna's stock price from its 2024 high of 170.47 in late May.

Moderna's earnings performance has been volatile over the past few quarters, with significant swings in both directions. In Q3 2024, the company crushed expectations, posting a surprise profit of 3 cents per share, compared to a loss of $1.94 per share expected by analysts. This marked a dramatic turnaround from the year-earlier loss of $9.53 per share. However, analysts still project continued losses in upcoming quarters as Moderna invests in its portfolio and platform. Despite the recent beat, Moderna's stock has a poor composite rating of 5, reflecting weak fundamental and technical metrics. The company's earnings performance has been characterized by a high degree of variability, with significant upside potential but also potential for future losses.

In conclusion, while Moderna's Q3 earnings beat was impressive, it was not enough to satisfy investor expectations. The company's Covid vaccination market remains strong, but the delayed RSV vaccine approval and market competition have taken a toll on its stock price. As Moderna continues to invest in its portfolio and platform, analysts expect continued losses in the upcoming quarters. Despite the recent beat, the company's earnings performance has been volatile, with a high degree of variability. Investors should monitor Moderna's progress closely, as the company's future growth prospects hinge on its ability to execute on its strategic initiatives and navigate the competitive landscape.