Moderna’s mRNA-4106 Cancer Breakthrough: A Buy Signal in the Dip

On May 15, 2025, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) marked a pivotal moment in its evolution beyond vaccines. The biotech giant began dosing patients in its Phase 1 trial for mRNA-4106, a first-of-its-kind pan-tumor cancer therapy that targets antigens shared across multiple solid tumor types. Partnering with The START Center for Cancer Research, a global leader in community-based oncology trials, this trial could redefine Moderna’s role in oncology—and present a compelling buying opportunity for investors.

A Strategic Gamble Pays Off: mRNA-4106’s Pan-Tumor Potential

The mRNA-4106 trial is a bold departure from traditional cancer therapies. Unlike single-targeted treatments, it uses mRNA to train the immune system to recognize 15 shared tumor antigens, potentially addressing a broad array of cancers. The partnership with START, which has conducted over 1,000 early-phase trials and secured 45 FDA/EMA approvals, provides a fast-track to clinical validation. This trial isn’t just about science—it’s about execution. START’s community-based model accelerates patient recruitment and reduces costs, critical for a company facing financial headwinds.

The Stock Dip: A Misplaced Reaction to Near-Term Noise

While mRNA-4106’s initiation is a milestone, Moderna’s stock has dipped 3% in May 2025 amid concerns about its Q1 2025 results. The quarter saw revenue plummet 35% to $108 million, driven by post-pandemic demand normalization for its Spikevax® vaccine and underwhelming RSV vaccine sales. Investors also flagged rising costs—$42 million in inventory write-downs and manufacturing inefficiencies—amplifying worries about cash burn.

But this dip overlooks Moderna’s long-term oncology upside.

Proven Track Record: mRNA Oncology Works

Moderna’s mRNA platform isn’t just theoretical. Its mRNA-4157 therapy, targeting melanoma recurrence, delivered 3-year data showing a 44% reduction in relapse risk in high-risk patients. This real-world success underscores the potential of mRNA-based immunotherapies—a precedent that mRNA-4106 could build on.

Valuation Disconnect: $46.96 Target vs. Current Undervaluation

Analysts project a $46.96 price target for Moderna, implying a 25% upside from its mid-May 2025 price of ~$37.50. This gap grows starker when considering pipeline expansion:
- mRNA-4157 advances toward FDA approval for melanoma.
- mRNA-4359 (Checkpoint AIM-T) targets checkpoint-resistant tumors.
- mRNA-4106’s pan-tumor approach could unlock a $20B+ market.

Yet, short-term financial pain—operating losses and cash burn—has overshadowed this growth.

Risks vs. Rewards: Why Now Is the Time to Buy

Risks are clear:
- High R&D costs (Q1 R&D: $856M) and regulatory hurdles (e.g., delayed flu/COVID combo vaccine).
- Near-term revenue reliance on vaccines in a post-pandemic world.

But the upside is transformative:
- Oncology diversification: mRNA-4106’s success could reduce Moderna’s dependence on vaccines, which face declining demand and competition.
- Dominance in mRNA: As rivals like BioNTech struggle with commercialization, Moderna’s early lead in oncology could cement its position as the sector’s go-to innovator.

Conclusion: The Dip Is a Buying Opportunity

Moderna’s stock dip reflects near-term execution challenges, not the long-term potential of its mRNA platform. With mRNA-4106’s trial underway, a proven oncology track record, and a valuation gap wider than its cash burn, now is the time to buy the dip.

Action Item: Consider adding Moderna to your portfolio at current levels. The pan-tumor trial’s data readouts in 2025–2026 could trigger a valuation re-rating, while its diversified pipeline ensures Moderna isn’t just a pandemic play—it’s a leader in the next era of medicine.

The author holds no position in Moderna and is not a financial advisor. Consult your investment professional before making decisions.