Mobileye Global (MBLY) Plummets 4.5%: Can This Tech Giant Rebound or Is the Bearish Trend Here to Stay?

Summary
• Mobileye Global (MBLY) plunges 4.5% to $12.50, hitting a 52-week low of $11.58
• Q3 revenue grows 4% to $504M, but gross margin declines 100 bps
• India ADAS partnership and robotaxi progress highlighted in earnings call
• RSI at 26.65 (oversold) and MACD -0.39 signal bearish momentum

Mobileye Global’s stock faces a sharp intraday decline amid mixed earnings results and sector headwinds. Despite a 4% revenue increase and strategic wins in autonomous driving, technical indicators and sector dynamics suggest continued downward pressure. Investors must weigh near-term bearish signals against long-term growth catalysts in the autonomous vehicle revolution.

Q3 Earnings Optimism Clashes with Margin Pressures and Sector Volatility
Mobileye’s 4.5% drop reflects a tug-of-war between positive earnings surprises and persistent margin challenges. While Q3 revenue rose 4% to $504M—driven by 8% EyeQ volume growth—the company’s gross margin contracted by over 100 bps year-over-year due to lower-margin EyeQ5 shipments and pricing pressures in China. The updated $1.845M–$1.885M full-year revenue guidance, though a 2% upward revision, failed to offset concerns over operating losses ($462M–$439M) and a 15% cash burn in Q3. Meanwhile, sector-wide volatility, including Tesla’s -3.8% decline, amplified risk-off sentiment as investors priced in macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory headwinds for autonomous tech.

Automotive Sector Volatility Intensifies as EV Leaders Stumble
The automotive sector, led by Tesla’s -3.8% intraday drop, is under pressure from shifting consumer demand and regulatory scrutiny. Mobileye’s 4.5% decline aligns with broader sector weakness, as EVs face margin compression from global tariffs and supply chain disruptions. While Mobileye’s robotaxi progress and India ADAS partnership offer long-term upside, near-term execution risks—such as delayed SuperVision deployments and competition from Waymo and Luminar—weigh on sentiment. The sector’s 1.34% turnover rate and -28.79 P/E ratio highlight its cyclical nature, with investors favoring defensive plays over high-growth tech names.

Bearish Technicals and High-Leverage Puts Signal Short-Term Hedging Opportunities
• 200-day MA: 15.21 (below) • RSI: 26.65 (oversold) • MACD: -0.39 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 12.44–16.07 • 52W range: $11.58–$22.51

Technical indicators confirm a short-term bearish bias, with price trading near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI in oversold territory. Key support levels at $12.44 (lower band) and $14.09 (30D support) are critical for near-term direction. The 11.5–12.5 strike range in the November 14 options chain offers high leverage for downside bets. Two top options:

• MBLY20251114P12 (Put, $12 strike, Nov 14): IV 55.11%, Leverage 46.11%, Delta -0.3279, Theta -0.0032, Gamma 0.3033, Turnover 1,846. High liquidity and moderate delta balance risk/reward.
• MBLY20251121P12.5 (Put, $12.5 strike, Nov 21): IV 53.25%, Leverage 20.75%, Delta -0.4831, Theta -0.0011, Gamma 0.2707, Turnover 921. Strong gamma ensures sensitivity to price swings.

Payoff analysis under a 5% downside (to $11.88): MBLY20251114P12 yields $0.12 profit per contract, while MBLY20251121P12.5 gains $0.62. Aggressive short-sellers may target the $11.5 strike (MBLY20251114P11.5) for 113.18% leverage, but high IV (55.56%) increases decay risk. For a balanced approach, MBLY20251114P12 offers optimal entry ahead of the Nov 14 expiry.

Backtest Mobileye Global Stock Performance
Here is the historical event-study you requested. We defined an “event” as every trading day on which Mobileye’s intraday low was at least 5 % below the previous close, covering 3 Jan 2022 – 4 Nov 2025 (115 events identified). The back-test was run on closing prices over a 30-day window after each event.Key findings (high-level): • Short-term (1–10 trading days) performance was slightly negative and not statistically significant. • A positive and statistically significant rebound emerged around trading-days 27-28 (+3 % cumulative excess return versus −0.8 % for the benchmark). • Win-rates stabilised near 55 % after day 25, indicating modest mean-reversion. Parameter notes (auto-filled): • Price type: close – aligns with typical event-study convention. • Evaluation horizon: 30 trading days – standard default for short-/medium-term drift analysis.You can explore the full interactive report below.Feel free to review the chart and tables, and let me know if you’d like to adjust the event definition (e.g., different plunge threshold or holding window) or run additional analyses.

Bullish Fundamentals vs. Bearish Technicals: What to Watch Before the November Expiry
Mobileye’s long-term growth story—anchored by robotaxi commercialization and India ADAS expansion—remains intact, but near-term technicals and sector headwinds suggest a defensive stance. The 12.44 support level is critical; a break below triggers a test of the 52-week low at $11.58. Investors should monitor the November 14 options expiry for liquidity-driven price action and watch for a potential bounce off the 14.26 200-day MA. With Tesla (-3.8%) leading the sector’s decline, sector rotation into defensive plays could accelerate. Act now: Short-term bears should prioritize MBLY20251114P12 for 46.11% leverage, while bulls may wait for a rebound above $14.26 before re-entering.