T-Mobile US Slumps 4.15% as Bearish Technicals Signal Further Downside Risk

T-Mobile US (TMUS) declined 4.15% in the most recent trading session, closing at 221.4 after ranging between 220 and 222.5, with elevated volume of 10.96 million shares. This technical analysis evaluates the stock's current posture and probable future movements through multiple frameworks, noting confluence and divergences across indicators.
Candlestick Theory
The price action reveals a clear bearish continuation pattern. The June 17 candle closed near its low after forming a long red body, following an indecisive doji-like candle on June 16. This occurred below the June 6 peak of 245.86, confirming resistance at 230–232. Immediate support emerges at 220, which held during the latest session, while failure below this level could trigger further declines toward 215. The sequence of lower highs (245.86, 231.61, 222.5) and lower lows (228, 220) reinforces the downtrend.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average alignment signals entrenched bearish momentum. The 50-day MA (approximating 237) and 100-day MA (near 243) both slope downward, with the price trading approximately 7% below the 50-day level. The 200-day MA (around 226) is trending flat but remains above the current price. A confirmed death cross persists between the 50-day and 100-day averages. This configuration suggests sustained selling pressure, with rallies likely to face resistance near the 225–228 zone where these MAs converge.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram resides deeply in negative territory (-2.5), with both the MACD line and signal line descending steeply, reflecting accelerating bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows %K at 18 and %D at 22, placing the stock in oversold territory (typically <20 and 30, respectively). However, this KDJ oversold signal diverges from the MACD's bearish persistence. Such divergence may imply potential for a short-term technical rebound, though without confirmation from price action or volume.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded markedly, with the bands widening during the June decline. The price currently presses against the lower band (approximately 218), typically a sign of oversold conditions. The June 17 candle closed below the lower band, which historically preceded minor bounces in April–May but failed to reverse the primary trend. A sustained break below the lower band could accelerate selling, while mean-reversion toward the 20-day moving average (near 230) would require decisive volume-backed recovery.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution is evident in recent volume patterns. The June 17 decline occurred on 10.96 million shares—well above the 30-day average volume of 4.2 million—validating the bearish breakout. Conversely, rebound attempts in early June (e.g., June 16’s 1.31% gain) materialized on below-average volume, indicating weak buying conviction. This volume asymmetry strengthens the bearish case, suggesting institutional selling dominates short-term bargain hunting.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI reads 28, calculated as RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + (Average Gain / Average Loss))], with losses over the period significantly exceeding gains. While this places TMUS in oversold territory (<30), RSI can remain depressed during strong downtrends. The current level aligns with April 25’s oversold reading (RSI 27) during a -11.22% selloff, which preceded only a transient bounce. Thus, the RSI warns of stretched conditions but doesn’t guarantee reversal without supporting signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the dominant downtrend from the April 3 peak (267.89) to the June 17 low (220) shows the 38.2% retracement at 240.6 and the 23.6% level at 231.4. The price has struggled to surpass even the 23.6% resistance during June rallies. For the immediate leg down from June 6’s high (245.86), the 23.6% retracement sits at 226.1. Confluence exists between this level and the 200-day MA (226), making 225–226 a critical resistance zone for any recovery attempt.
Confluence of bearish evidence dominates: declining MAs, MACD momentum, and volume-backed breakdowns outweigh oversold readings from KDJ and RSI. Divergence appears in the oversold KDJ against the MACD’s bearish trajectory, hinting at technical tension. Should 220 support fail, the next psychological and structural floor emerges near 210, while any sustainable rebound must reclaim 226 (Fibonacci 23.6% + 200-day MA) with confirming volume. Probabilistically, the burden of proof rests with bulls to disrupt the prevailing bearish structure.