T-Mobile US cae un 2,87% a causa de un cambio de ejecutivos y de los indicadores técnicos negativos: ¿Qué pasará ahora con el gigante de la telefonía móvil?

Summary
• T-Mobile US (TMUS) plunges 2.87% to $195.58, hitting a 52-week low of $194.91
• Executive Jonathan Freier’s $306K insider sale raises questions about internal confidence
• Technical indicators signal bearish momentum with RSI at 27.9 and MACD below zero

The telecom giant’s sharp intraday decline has sparked urgency among investors, as a mix of executive turnover, bearish technicals, and sector-wide pressures collide. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and key options contracts showing high leverage ratios, the path forward demands a nuanced read of both fundamentals and volatility-driven opportunities.

Executive Uncertainty and Bearish Technicals Fuel T-Mobile’s Slide
T-Mobile’s 2.87% drop is driven by a confluence of factors. The recent appointment of Jonathan Freier as COO, while a strategic move, coincided with his $306K insider sale of 1,457 shares—a signal that may unsettle investors. Compounding this, technical indicators paint a grim picture: RSI at 27.9 (oversold territory) and a MACD of -3.09 (below the signal line) confirm a short-term bearish trend. The stock’s 52-week low at $194.91 now looms as a critical support level, with Bollinger Bands tightening to suggest a potential breakout or breakdown.

Telecom Sector Weakness Amplifies T-Mobile’s Slide as Verizon Trails Behind
The broader telecom sector is under pressure, with Verizon (VZ) down 0.85% and AT&T (T) flat. However, T-Mobile’s decline outpaces its peers, reflecting unique challenges. While Verizon’s strategic revamp under its new CEO offers some stability, T-Mobile’s aggressive 5G expansion and debt-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 1.99) make it more vulnerable to market volatility. The sector’s average P/E of 18.80 vs. T-Mobile’s 18.46 suggests valuation isn’t the primary driver—rather, operational and technical factors dominate.

High-Leverage Put Options and ETFs Target T-Mobile’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $238.90 (far below current price)
• RSI: 27.89 (oversold)
• MACD: -3.09 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: $202.24–$217.17 (current price near lower band)

Key Levels: The 52-week low at $194.91 and 30D support at $206.70 are critical. A break below $194.91 could trigger a test of the 200D MA at $238.90, though bearish momentum suggests a deeper pullback. For options, TMUS20251219P190 and TMUS20251219C205 stand out:

TMUS20251219P190 (Put):
• Strike: $190, Expiry: 12/19
• IV: 27.73% (moderate)
• Leverage: 130.09% (high)
• Delta: -0.268 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0178 (slow decay)
• Turnover: $40,999 (liquid)
• Gamma: 0.0368 (responsive to price swings)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $5.00 (max(0, 185.80 - 190))
• Why: High leverage and liquidity make this ideal for a bearish bet with controlled risk.

TMUS20251219C205 (Call):
• Strike: $205, Expiry: 12/19
• IV: 31.68% (high)
• Leverage: 195.14% (very high)
• Delta: 0.1836 (low sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2163 (rapid decay)
• Turnover: $12,799 (liquid)
• Gamma: 0.0260 (moderate responsiveness)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $0 (max(0, 185.80 - 205))
• Why: Aggressive bulls may target a rebound above $205, but theta decay demands swift execution.

Action: Aggressive short-sellers should consider TMUS20251219P190 into a breakdown below $194.91. For a bullish play, TMUS20251219C205 offers high leverage if the stock rebounds above $205.

Backtest T-Mobile US Stock Performance
The backtest of AT&T (TMUS) after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term performance. The 3-Day win rate is 53.69%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.15%, and the 30-Day win rate is 64.21%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.02%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is some volatility, TMUS can exhibit positive gains in the following days after a significant drop.

T-Mobile at Inflection Point: Break Below $194.91 Signals Deeper Downtrend
T-Mobile’s 2.87% drop reflects a perfect storm of executive uncertainty, bearish technicals, and sector-wide fragility. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling momentum decay, the stock faces a critical juncture. A breakdown below $194.91 would validate the bear case, while a rebound above $205 could reignite optimism. Investors should monitor Verizon (VZ) at -0.85% for sector cues and watch T-Mobile’s 52-week low as a key catalyst. For now, TMUS20251219P190 offers a high-leverage path to capitalize on the downside, but patience is key as volatility remains elevated.