Mizuho Raises Carnival's PT to $37, Maintains Outperform Rating

Mizuho Raises Carnival's PT to $37, Maintains Outperform Rating

In a recent update, Mizuho Financial Group has raised its price target for Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) to $37.00, up from $35.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the cruise operator's stock Mizuho raises Carnival stock price target to $37 on compelling outlook^[1]. This move comes amidst a strong operational momentum displayed by Carnival, which boasts a market capitalization of $39.48 billion and impressive revenue growth of 10.82% over the last twelve months.

The investment firm expects Carnival to report third-quarter EBITDA of $2.92 billion, slightly above the company’s guidance of $2.87 billion and the Street consensus of $2.90 billion. According to InvestingPro data, Carnival’s current valuation appears fairly priced, with the company generating $6.82 billion in EBITDA over the last twelve months.

Mizuho views Carnival as "compelling" at only 8 times its 2026 estimated EBITDA, with shares down slightly over the last month despite positive long-term growth drivers. The firm noted that "distracting headlines" over recent months have affected the stock, suggesting a solid third-quarter performance could serve as a "clearing event" for what it considers a compelling long-term investment case.

Several growth catalysts for Carnival were highlighted by Mizuho, including the ramping up of its Celebration Key private island and the prospect of capital return to shareholders "on the horizon." The firm also noted the potential for positive earnings surprises ahead of Carnival's upcoming earnings report, with analysts from Stifel, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Melius Research all raising their price targets for the stock Carnival Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?^[2].

Carnival's fiscal third-quarter results are expected to be released on September 29, 2025, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.31, suggesting 3.2% growth from the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $8.1 billion, indicating growth of 2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has a history of outperforming earnings estimates, with the average surprise being 169.9% over the trailing four quarters.

The expected performance is likely to have benefited from sustained yield momentum, strong European demand, and the launch of Celebration Key. The company's ability to capture premium pricing and robust onboard spending patterns is likely to have supported revenue generation in the to-be-reported quarter.

Despite potential cost pressures tied to new initiatives and higher marketing spend, Carnival's disciplined cost management and strategic capacity planning provide a path toward stronger margins and financial resilience. With a discounted valuation relative to peers and a growing pipeline of investments, Carnival offers a compelling opportunity for long-term investors.