El mejoramiento de Mizuho en Costco: ¿Una estrategia táctica o una mala interpretación de la situación actual?

The immediate catalyst is clear. Mizuho Securities has upgraded Costco to Outperform from Neutral, added the stock to its Top Picks list, and raised its price target to $1,000 from $950. This move directly targets a recent ~20% pullback in the shares, which has been driven by investor concerns over slowing membership and comparable sales growth. Mizuho's analyst, David Bellinger, frames this correction as a classic case of overreaction. He argues the issues are not a fundamental breakdown but rather execution problems tied to exceptionally strong demand.

The setup creates a textbook "buy the dip" opportunity. This isn't a stock in freefall; it's a leader that has already fallen about 6% in 2025 while the S&P 500 climbed more than 16%. The recent ~20% correction from highs, following a year of underperformance, has left the stock trading at a discount to its historical growth trajectory. Mizuho's thesis is that these recent concerns are overblown, stemming from temporary factors like the opening of new "fill-in" warehouses that siphon traffic from existing high-volume locations. The core of the tactical bet is that durable high-single-digit top-line growth remains intact, supported by accelerating trade-up activity and high renewal rates.

The upgrade is a direct challenge to the prevailing market narrative. By citing historical parallels to a similar mid-2017 pullback that preceded a reacceleration, Mizuho is positioning this as a temporary mispricing. The bank sees a rare and compelling setup where easing cost pressures and a strong capital return history could soon provide another catalyst. The immediate impact is already visible, with shares rising around 1% in premarket trading on the news.

The Mechanics: Sales Momentum vs. Valuation Pressure

The bullish case now has fresh operational fuel. Costco's December sales data, released earlier this week, showed a clear acceleration. U.S. comparable sales gained 6.3% for the five weeks ending January 4, a notable jump from November's 5.8% and a decisive beat against the 3.5% estimate. This strength wasn't isolated; it was broad-based, with fresh foods and non-food categories both posting solid gains, and the average transaction size rising to 4.2% from 3% the prior month. For Mizuho, this is the core evidence that the "execution problems" narrative is misplaced. The data confirms durable high-single-digit top-line growth is still intact.

Yet this momentum clashes directly with the stock's premium valuation. Shares trade at a P/E of 49, a multiple that demands flawless execution and sustained acceleration. In this light, the recent ~20% pullback looks less like a fundamental breakdown and more like a valuation reset. Investors are paying $49 for every dollar of trailing profit, a price that leaves no room for error. The December beat provides a reason to believe the company can deliver, but it must now consistently meet the high bar set by that multiple.

Mizuho's proprietary analysis adds a crucial layer to this tension. The bank argues that more than half of recent U.S. warehouse openings are "fill-ins"-new stores placed in existing markets. This strategy, while temporarily weighing on headline membership growth by diverting traffic, is a sign of exceptionally strong underlying demand. It's the "high-quality problem" Mizuho describes. This operational detail explains the recent slowdown in membership metrics while simultaneously validating the strength in comparable sales. The setup is a classic misreading: the market focused on the headline membership dip, missing the signal from the comp sales acceleration and the fill-in strategy.

The bottom line is a stark contrast between current performance and future expectations. The December numbers are a tactical win, proving the growth engine is still firing. But for the stock to re-rate meaningfully from its current ~$915, that momentum must not only hold but accelerate further. The high valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to any stumble, making Mizuho's call a bet on flawless execution in a demanding environment.

The Setup: Near-Term Catalysts and Key Risks

The immediate test for Mizuho's thesis is the next membership renewal cycle and the subsequent comparable sales report. The bank's core argument hinges on the "fill-in" theory and the durability of trade-up activity. If the next report shows membership growth stabilizing or accelerating as the fill-in stores reach maturity, and if trade-up adds continue to outpace total membership growth, it will validate the "high-quality problem" narrative. Conversely, a further deceleration in membership metrics would undermine the entire premise and likely trigger another round of selling.

A key risk is the stock's minimal margin for error. Mizuho's price target implies about 17% upside from recent levels. That leaves little room to absorb any stumble in growth. The stock's recent surge to around $915 after the December sales beat shows it can react strongly to positive data. But it also highlights its sensitivity to misses. Any comp sales figure that falls below the high-single-digit range Mizuho cites as durable could quickly reset expectations and pressure the premium valuation.

The setup is a classic event-driven bet. The catalyst is clear: the next earnings report will either confirm the reacceleration Mizuho sees or expose the underlying model as flawed. The risk is that the stock's high multiple demands perfection, and the recent volatility demonstrates how quickly sentiment can shift. For now, the momentum is with the bulls, but the path to $1,000 is narrow.