Ming-Chi Kuo: TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged.

On March 3, Tianfeng International Securities analyst Jeff Pu stated that according to his industry investigation, TSMC's CoWoS 2.5D advanced packaging is expanding production on a quarterly basis, and the plan to achieve a monthly capacity of about 70,000 pieces by the end of this year has not changed; Nvidia's full-year CoWoS investment in TSMC has recently changed little. Analyst Jeff Pu said that the market rumor that Nvidia's CoWoS investment in TSMC in 2025 has been reduced from over 400,000 pieces to 380,000 pieces is inconsistent with the investigation, which may be due to the following reasons: one is that some market participants have overly optimistic expectations for Nvidia's 2025 investment; two is that some market participants have overly optimistic expectations for TSMC's CoWoS investment in 2025, leading to an overestimation of Nvidia's 2025 investment; three is that Nvidia's production plan has changed due to the significant advance of the product conversion time of B200 and B300 series, which has been misinterpreted as Nvidia cutting CoWoS investment. Jeff Pu emphasized that his understanding is that TSMC has always been very cautious about capacity expansion, and it is not easy to see significant cuts unless the industry trend reverses dramatically in the short term. Even low to medium single-digit changes are reasonable, and no one can accurately predict future demand. Jeff Pu said that when the atmosphere for AI/Nvidia was the hottest last year, Nvidia proposed an optimistic request, hoping that TSMC could expand its CoWoS capacity to 100,000 pieces per month, which was rejected by TSMC.