¿Está la producción de oro extraído cerca de su punto máximo a largo plazo?

The question of whether mined gold production is approaching a long-term peak has become a critical focal point for investors, policymakers, and industry analysts. Gold, long revered as a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty, faces a unique confluence of supply-side constraints that could reshape its role in global markets. Drawing on recent data and industry projections, this analysis examines the trajectory of gold production, the factors limiting its growth, and the implications for gold's investment value.

A Shifting Production Landscape

Global gold production has undergone a dramatic realignment over the past three decades. Traditional hubs like South Africa, once the world's largest producer, have seen output plummet from 554 tonnes in 1995 to just 107 tonnes in 2020, driven by aging mines, operational challenges, and declining ore grades according to Kitco. Meanwhile, China and Russia have emerged as the top two producers, with China's 2020 output reaching 364 tonnes and Russia's at 341 tonnes as reported. This geographic shift reflects broader trends: foreign investment in emerging markets, technological advancements in extraction, and the discovery of new deposits in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

However, the industry's growth is not without limits. According to the World Gold Council, global gold mining output is projected to peak around 2027, followed by a gradual plateau rather than a sharp decline. This forecast is underpinned by a combination of factors, including declining exploration discoveries, rising capital expenditures (CAPEX), and operational constraints. As of 2025, production has stabilized, with mined output averaging near zero annual growth from 2018 to 2024, though the first three quarters of 2025 saw a modest 16-tonne year-over-year increase according to Gold.org.

Supply-Side Constraints: The Invisible Brakes

The looming plateau in gold production is not a sudden phenomenon but the result of systemic supply-side constraints. First, exploration investment, while rising in recent years, has failed to yield major new discoveries. Data from 2020 to 2025 shows that exploration budgets have increased, but new deposits are smaller and fewer compared to earlier decades. The scarcity of high-grade deposits, coupled with the high costs of developing new mines, has left the industry reliant on existing assets. For example, New Gold Inc. projects a 30% increase in its own output by 2027, but such growth is exceptional rather than the norm according to Visual Capitalist.

Second, environmental and regulatory hurdles are compounding operational challenges. In the Peruvian Amazon, bans on mercury-based extraction have forced companies to adopt eco-friendly alternatives, leading to procurement delays and production halts as documented. Similarly, global competition for inputs-such as semiconductors for automated drilling rigs-has exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks, with 71% of gold mining firms citing procurement delays as their top operational challenge in 2025 according to Farmonaut. These constraints are particularly acute in remote regions, where logistical challenges like seasonal road closures and high transportation costs further strain profitability.

Third, the economic viability of gold mining is increasingly constrained by rising CAPEX and operational costs. Despite record gold prices-peaking at $4,794.85 per ounce in December 2025-miners face margin pressures from inflation, energy costs, and labor shortages as reported. The World Gold Council estimates that global in-ground reserves could sustain current production levels for about 14 years, but this assumes no major new discoveries according to Kitco. Given the industry's reliance on aging mines and the difficulty of replacing depleted reserves, the long-term outlook for supply growth remains muted.

Implications for Gold's Investment Value

The interplay of these supply-side constraints and demand dynamics has significant implications for gold's investment value. On the demand side, gold's role as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and central bank purchases. In 2025, central banks added record amounts of gold to their reserves, signaling a strategic shift away from the U.S. dollar and toward diversification according to Illuminem. Meanwhile, Western demand for gold ETFs has rebounded after years of outflows, driven by investor concerns over macroeconomic instability as noted.

However, the tightening supply outlook could amplify gold's price volatility. If production plateaus by 2027, as projected, the gap between demand and supply may widen, particularly if central bank purchases continue. This dynamic is already evident in the Exploration Price Index (EPI), which hit a record 311 in November 2025, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to price trends according to Mining.com. For investors, this suggests that gold's value is increasingly tied to its scarcity and the structural challenges facing the mining industry.

Conclusion

Mined gold production is undeniably approaching a long-term peak, constrained by dwindling exploration success, environmental regulations, and rising operational costs. While technological innovations and new discoveries in regions like Canada and Russia may extend the plateau, the fundamental limits of finite resources remain. For investors, this means gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty is likely to strengthen, but its price trajectory will depend on how effectively the industry navigates these constraints. As the world moves toward a post-peak production era, gold's enduring appeal lies not in its abundance, but in its resilience-a commodity whose value is forged in scarcity.