MicroStrategy's Resilience and Technical Bull Case Post-S&P 500 Snub

MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) recent exclusion from the S&P 500 index has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts. Despite meeting technical eligibility criteria—including liquidity and market capitalization—the company was bypassed in favor of Robinhood and AppLovin, a decision attributed to the S&P 500 Index Committee’s discretion in managing Bitcoin-related risk [1]. The exclusion triggered a 2.9% drop in MSTR’s after-hours trading, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to institutional validation [2]. Yet, beneath the short-term volatility lies a compelling technical and fundamental case for long-term resilience, driven by its unique positioning as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Near-Term Outlook with Structural Resilience

Post-exclusion, MSTR’s technical indicators reveal a mixed picture. The stock’s 5-Day moving average (333.05) has fallen below its 20-Day moving average (351.96), signaling a short-term downward trend [3]. The 14-Day RSI of 38.43 suggests moderate bearish momentum, while a 3.18% increase in short interest over the past month highlights growing bearish sentiment [4]. These metrics align with broader market skepticism about MSTR’s ability to sustain its Bitcoin-driven value proposition amid structural challenges such as dilution and convertible arbitrage pressures [5].

However, the stock’s price-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio of 1.55 in early September 2025 indicates undervaluation relative to its Bitcoin holdings, which are valued at over $70 billion [6]. This disconnect between MSTR’s equity price and its underlying asset base creates a technical floor, as investors who view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value may see MSTR as a leveraged play with intrinsic upside.

Bitcoin Correlation and Long-Term Value Potential

MicroStrategy’s stock has historically exhibited a 0.65 correlation with Bitcoin over a 12-month period, albeit with 2.5 times the volatility [7]. While this volatility has led to a 40–50% decline in MSTR’s price since its November 2024 peak, the company’s Bitcoin holdings have continued to appreciate. Bitcoin reached a record high of $124,277.5 on August 14, 2025, outpacing MSTR’s performance [8]. This underperformance is not a flaw but a feature of MSTR’s capital structure, which includes dilutive financing and operational costs.

Critics of the “Ballistic Acceleration Model”—a retail-driven narrative suggesting MSTR will outperform Bitcoin—have pointed to its lack of theoretical rigor [9]. However, alternative frameworks, such as the power law, suggest a more stable trajectory for MSTR’s long-term value. The company’s Bitcoin per share has increased by 25.8% year-to-date, and its strategy to outperform Bitcoin by 2–4 times remains intact [10]. This aligns with the broader thesis that MSTR’s stock is a “digital capital” vehicle, where Bitcoin’s appreciation directly enhances its net asset value.

Strategic Implications and the Path Forward

The S&P 500 exclusion, while a setback, may ultimately strengthen MSTR’s long-term case. By avoiding the index, the company sidesteps the regulatory and liquidity constraints often tied to inclusion, preserving its autonomy to double down on Bitcoin. As stated by a report from Coingape, the exclusion reflects traditional finance’s cautious stance toward Bitcoin-centric risk, but it also reinforces MSTR’s identity as a pure-play on the cryptocurrency’s success [11].

For technical bulls, the key is to monitor MSTR’s ability to reassert its historical correlation with Bitcoin. A breakout above the 20-Day moving average (351.96) could signal a shift in sentiment, particularly if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the stock’s mNAV premium offers a tangible benchmark for value investors, who may view dips as opportunities to accumulate shares at a discount to their underlying Bitcoin holdings.

Conclusion

MicroStrategy’s exclusion from the S&P 500 is a short-term headwind but not a long-term threat to its Bitcoin-driven value proposition. While technical indicators currently favor bears, the company’s structural resilience—rooted in its $70 billion Bitcoin portfolio and a power-law-based growth model—provides a strong foundation for recovery. For investors with a multi-year horizon, MSTR remains a compelling leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s continued ascent, even as it navigates the turbulence of traditional finance’s skepticism.

Source:
[1] Robinhood (HOOD) Joins the S&P 500 — Why Strategy Missed the S&P 500 While Robinhood Got In — and What It Means for Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Bet [https://www.ccn.com/education/crypto/mstr-watch-strategy-missed-sp-500-robinhood-got-in-explained/]
[2] MicroStrategy MSTR misses S&P 500 inclusion: BTC exposure risk and options spread alerts ahead of Sept 19 2025 rebalance [https://blockchain.news/flashnews/microstrategy-mstr-misses-s-p-500-inclusion-btc-exposure-risk-and-options-spread-alerts-ahead-of-sept-19-2025-rebalance]
[3] MSTR Technical Analysis for Strategy Stock [https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MSTR/technical-analysis]
[4] Strategy (MSTR) Stock Price, News & Analysis - NASDAQ [https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/MSTR/]
[5] Strategy Lags Bitcoin — What's Next for MSTR Investors? [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/business/why-strategy-isnt-keeping-up-btc-where-mstr-headed/]
[6] MicroStrategy at H.C. Wainwright: Bitcoin as Digital Capital [https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/microstrategy-at-hc-wainwright-bitcoin-as-digital-capital-93CH-4230388]
[7] Strategy: Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure, Without The ETF ... [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4814229-strategy-leveraged-bitcoin-exposure-without-the-etf-ceiling]
[8] BTC Price Prediction: Analyzing Investment Potential Amid ... [https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/Bitcoin%20News/915268]
[9] Expert Blames 'Secret Committee' for Rejecting MSTR Stock Inclusion to S&P 500 [https://coingape.com/expert-blames-secret-committee-for-rejecting-mstr-stock-inclusion-to-sp-500/]
[10] Michael Saylor's Strategy Fails To Make S&P 500 Listing [https://coingape.com/michael-saylors-strategy-fails-to-make-sp-500-listing/]
[11] BTC Options Tilt Bearish Ahead of Friday's Expiry: Crypto ... [https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2025/09/04/bitcoin-options-tilt-bearish-ahead-of-friday-s-expiry-crypto-daybook-americas]