Why Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Is Ripe for a Turnaround

We’ve seen extraordinary periods of technological shifts over the past few decades, from the explosion of the internet to the onset of artificial intelligence.

And one thing has become abundantly clear: even the strongest secular leaders can experience short periods of consolidation that feel more painful than they ultimately turn out to be.

In early 2026, technology stocks — and SaaS names in particular — have faced meaningful pressure. Valuations that expanded aggressively during the AI enthusiasm of 2024-2025 have been re-rated lower.

AI leader and software giant Microsoft has not been immune. Shares have notably lagged the broader market year-to-date, contributing to a broader rotation out of growth-oriented tech into more defensive sectors.

Yet, in our view, this underperformance is far more likely to prove a healthy ‘breather’ than the start of a structural downturn. With Microsoft’s latest earnings demonstrating continued strength in Azure and AI adoption, forward estimates pointing to sustained double-digit growth, and a series of recent product and partnership announcements reinforcing long-term momentum, the setup for a sharp turnaround in the coming weeks appears increasingly compelling.

Microsoft’s Latest Earnings and Current-Quarter Estimates

Microsoft’s latest quarterly results provided clear evidence that the underlying business remains robust. Total revenue during the company’s fiscal second quarter reached $81.3 billion, up 17% year-over-year, comfortably beating consensus estimates.

Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed the $50 billion quarterly threshold for the first time at $51.5 billion, rising 26% from the year-ago period. Within that, Intelligent Cloud revenue grew 29% to $32.9 billion, driven by Azure and other cloud services, which surged 39%. Adjusted earnings came in at $4.14 per share, up 24% year-over-year, handily beating our Zacks Consensus Estimate ($3.88/share).

These figures were not merely incremental improvements. They reflected the accelerating diffusion of AI across Microsoft’s ecosystem. Azure’s 39% growth rate continued to outpace the broader cloud market, and management highlighted that AI workloads are now a meaningful contributor to that acceleration.

CEO Satya Nadella noted that Microsoft has already built an AI business that rivals some of its largest franchises, while CFO Amy Hood emphasized that the company exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income, and earnings per share despite continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure. Commercial remaining performance obligations — a key forward-looking indicator — jumped 110% to $625 billion, providing exceptional visibility into future revenue streams.

Analysts’ estimates for the current quarter remain robust. Guidance for the fiscal third quarter already points to revenue of approximately $81.4 billion, with Azure expected to grow in the mid-to-high 30% range. These projections have seen modest upward revisions in recent weeks, particularly for the Intelligent Cloud segment, as investors digest the strength of AI-related bookings.

The company’s long-term outlook — with Microsoft Cloud potentially scaling toward $100 billion+ annualized run-rates in the coming years — remains intact and is supported by the expanding commercial remaining performance obligation.

Bullish Tailwinds Point to MSFT Rebound

The software as a service (SaaS) sell-off that has weighed on Microsoft and peers in recent weeks strikes us as overblown. Much of the pressure has stemmed from concerns around valuation multiples, potential slowdowns in enterprise spending, and fears that AI monetization would take longer to materialize.

Yet Microsoft’s results directly counter those worries. Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew solidly in the latest quarter, with Copilot adoption continuing to ramp across enterprises.

The company’s ability to layer AI capabilities onto its existing productivity suite creates a powerful flywheel: customers already paying for Office and Azure are incrementally adopting Copilot and Azure AI services, driving higher revenue per user without the customer-acquisition costs associated with net-new logos. This type of land-and-expand dynamic within an installed base is one of the most durable sources of growth, and Microsoft MSFT is executing it at scale.

Recent announcements further bolster the case for a near-term turnaround. At the Microsoft Ignite and other events in late 2025 and early 2026, the company unveiled expanded Copilot capabilities across the entire Microsoft 365 suite, new AI-powered features in Dynamics 365 and Power Platform, and deeper integrations with OpenAI models.

Partnerships with major enterprises and sovereign cloud initiatives have also expanded, demonstrating that AI adoption is broadening beyond the largest hyperscalers into mainstream businesses and government entities.

Bottom Line

These moves are not speculative; they represent concrete progress in turning massive AI infrastructure investments into recurring, high-margin revenue streams.

The broader technology sector’s recent underperformance, while understandable after years of exceptional gains, appears to reflect sentiment and rotation more than deteriorating fundamentals.

Many SaaS companies have faced questions around growth deceleration and margin pressure, but Microsoft’s results highlight that leading players with strong installed bases and clear AI differentiation are still delivering acceleration. The current pause has created valuation resets that, in our experience, often precede renewed rallies once earnings visibility improves and seasonal factors kick in.

Disclosure: Microsoft is a long-term holding in the Zacks Income Investor portfolio. The author may also hold a position in the aforementioned securities.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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