Crecimiento impulsado por IA y el camino de Microsoft hacia $650, ¿el caso del buey es justificable?

The question of whether Microsoft's stock can reach $650 per share hinges on two critical pillars: the company's ability to sustain its AI and cloud momentum and the rationality of its current valuation amid high-growth expectations. With Microsoft's stock trading at $485.50 as of November 26, 2025, and its Intelligent Cloud division generating $29.88 billion in Q4 2025 revenue (up 26% year-over-year), the bull case appears anchored in robust fundamentals. However, a closer examination of valuation metrics, competitive dynamics, and AI-driven growth trajectories reveals a nuanced picture.

AI and Cloud Momentum: The Engine of Growth

Microsoft's Azure platform has emerged as a cornerstone of its AI strategy, with Azure AI Services projected to generate $11.5 billion in FY2025 revenue. This growth is fueled by strategic partnerships, such as its exclusive access to OpenAI models and a $250 billion in Azure-related commercial bookings tied to OpenAI. The company's Q3 2025 results underscored this momentum: Azure revenue grew 33% year-over-year, driven by AI services, while Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $49 billion, up 26%.

Capital expenditures for AI infrastructure totaled a $34.9 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting Microsoft's commitment to expanding its data center footprint by 80% in 2025 and doubling it by 2027. These investments position Azure to capture a growing share of the AI cloud market, where Microsoft currently holds 20% global market share, trailing AWS's 29% but outpacing Google Cloud's 13% according to market data. Analysts project Azure's growth rate of 34% in FY2025 to remain ahead of AWS's 17.5% and Google Cloud's 32% in Q2 2025 according to market analysis, suggesting a narrowing gap in market leadership.

Valuation Rationality: A Mixed Picture

Microsoft's current valuation metrics present a dichotomy. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 34.2, above the software industry average of 31.4 but below its peer group average of 36.7. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates an intrinsic value of $599.76 per share, implying the stock is undervalued by ~19.4% relative to its $485.50 price. However, analyst price targets vary widely, ranging from $490 to $700, reflecting divergent views on AI's long-term profitability.

The bullish narrative assumes Azure's AI-driven revenue growth will accelerate, with Azure surpassing $75 billion in annual revenue in FY2025 and potentially reaching $100 billion by 2027. Conversely, a bearish scenario emphasizes margin pressures from heavy capital expenditures and competition from AWS and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which is projected to grow its market share from 3% in Q2 2025 to $144 billion in revenue by 2030.

Competitive Landscape: Sustaining the Edge

Microsoft's AI-driven cloud strategy is bolstered by its Copilot ecosystem, which now boasts 150 million monthly active users. This product suite-spanning information work, coding, security, and healthcare-has become a differentiator in enterprise adoption, outpacing AWS's re:Invent offerings and Google Cloud's Vertex AI platform according to market analysis. However, AWS's first-mover advantage in cloud infrastructure and Oracle's aggressive AI contracts pose long-term risks.

The $650 price target implies a forward P/E of ~44.5 (based on FY2025 earnings of $3.65 per share) and a market capitalization of ~$1.5 trillion. Achieving this would require Microsoft to maintain its current growth trajectory while expanding profit margins. The company's Q4 2025 results, which included a $9.4 billion in shareholder returns, suggest management is balancing reinvestment and capital efficiency-a critical factor in sustaining investor confidence.

Conclusion: A Justifiable, But Conditional, Bull Case

The $650 bull case for Microsoft is plausible if the company can:
1. Sustain Azure's 30%+ annual revenue growth through AI innovation and enterprise adoption.
2. Expand profit margins by optimizing cloud infrastructure costs and leveraging economies of scale.
3. Outpace AWS and OCI in AI-driven cloud market share, particularly as global demand for generative AI surges.

While valuation metrics suggest the stock is undervalued relative to intrinsic value estimates, the high P/E ratio reflects market expectations already priced into the stock. For the $650 target to materialize, Microsoft must not only meet but exceed these expectations-a challenge given the intensifying competition and capital intensity of AI infrastructure. Investors bullish on the stock should monitor Azure's revenue growth, AI partnership monetization, and capital expenditure efficiency as key indicators of success.