Micron sube 3,76 % mientras la demanda de IA enciende el superciclo del consumo de memoria – ¿Qué viene a continuación?

Summary
• Micron Technology (MU) rockets 3.76% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $289.30
• Leveraged ETFs like Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X Shares (MUU) surge 7.67%
• Analysts project HBM market to balloon to $100B by 2028, driving Micron’s capex and margin expansion

Micron’s explosive rally on December 24, 2025, reflects a perfect storm of AI-driven demand, strategic capacity reallocation, and bullish analyst upgrades. With the stock trading at $286.68, up from $276.27 the previous close, the move underscores a broader semiconductor sector shift toward memory-centric infrastructure. The stock’s intraday range of $277.25 to $289.30 highlights intense buying pressure amid a tightening memory supply chain and surging HBM demand.

AI-Driven Memory Demand Fuels Micron’s Rally
Micron’s surge is anchored by AI’s insatiable appetite for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and server DRAM. The company’s Q1 revenue of $13.6B—up 57% YoY—reflects a structural shift as data centers prioritize memory to handle compute-intensive AI workloads. Micron’s decision to reallocate consumer-grade capacity to AI-focused production, coupled with a $20B capex plan for 2026, signals a long-term supercycle. Analysts at Bank of America and Rosenblatt now target $300–$500 for MU, citing a 40% CAGR in HBM demand and a $100B TAM by 2028. The stock’s 3.76% gain also aligns with broader sector optimism, as AI infrastructure spending accelerates.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as Micron Outperforms Intel
While Micron leads the semiconductor sector with a 3.76% gain, Intel (INTC) lags with a -0.52% intraday decline. This divergence highlights Micron’s unique positioning in the AI memory boom versus Intel’s broader PC and data center challenges. Sector peers like Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA Corp. (KLAC) also benefit from Micron’s capex plans, but their 10–14% revenue growth estimates pale against Micron’s 97.9% sales jump in fiscal 2026. The semiconductor equipment subsector, however, remains a key beneficiary of Micron’s spending, with Bank of America forecasting $131B in WFE sales by 2026.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Playbook for Micron’s AI-Driven Rally
• 200-day average: 143.28 (well below current price)
• 30-day average: 239.79 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 65.70 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 10.18 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $212.63–$276.84 (current price near upper band)

Micron’s technicals suggest a continuation of its AI-driven rally, with key support at $225.44 and resistance at $289.30 (52-week high). The Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X Shares (MUU) and GraniteShares 2x Long MU Daily ETF (MULL) offer amplified exposure for aggressive bulls. For options, two contracts stand out:

• MU20260102C280 (Call, $280 strike, Jan 2 2026):
- IV: 40.66% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 24.71%
- Delta: 0.6555 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.0612 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.019085 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $3.84M
- Payoff (5% upside): $11.34/share
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a 5% move, with turnover ensuring liquidity.

• MU20260102C290 (Call, $290 strike, Jan 2 2026):
- IV: 41.05% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 44.79%
- Delta: 0.4525 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.8798 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.020337 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $3.71M
- Payoff (5% upside): $14.34/share
- Why: Aggressive bulls should target this for higher leverage, with gamma amplifying gains if the move accelerates.

Action: Buy MU20260102C280 for a balanced play or MU20260102C290 for high-risk, high-reward. Monitor the 52-week high ($289.30) as a critical breakout level.

Backtest Micron Technology Stock Performance
The backtest of MU's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 51.28%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.20%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.14%, suggesting that MU tends to experience gains within these time frames. The maximum return observed was 9.91% over 30 days, indicating that while the gains are generally moderate, there is potential for significant appreciation in the short to medium term.

Micron’s AI Supercycle Gains Momentum – Position for 2026
Micron’s rally is not a flash in the pan but a structural shift driven by AI’s memory demands and a $100B HBM market. With a 3.76% intraday gain and a 229% YTD surge, the stock is poised to test its 52-week high and potentially break out. Investors should prioritize leveraged ETFs like MUU and options with high gamma and leverage, such as MU20260102C280, to capitalize on the supercycle. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector’s mixed performance—led by a -0.52% decline in INTC—underscores Micron’s unique AI-driven tailwinds. Act now: Buy MU20260102C280 ahead of the 52-week high breakout.