El “Superciclo de Memoria AI” de Micron: Evaluando la escalabilidad en medio de la volatilidad del mercado

The secular growth trend powering Micron is undeniable. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company's DRAM revenues soared 69% year over year to a record $10.8 billion. This isn't a fleeting spike but the opening act of a multi-year memory supercycle, driven by the insatiable data demands of artificial intelligence.

The expanding Total Addressable Market (TAM) is the core engine. As AI models grow larger and more complex, memory has become a critical performance bottleneck. Training and running these models require far more memory than traditional workloads, directly pushing up both the capacity and bandwidth needed per server. This creates a powerful demand tailwind for high-capacity solutions like Micron's High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

The market's trajectory is staggering: Micron now forecasts its HBM TAM will reach $100 billion by 2028, a projection that is two years earlier than previously guided. This represents a compound annual growth rate of roughly 40% through the end of the decade.

Yet, the most potent force amplifying this growth is severe supply constraints. Management has been candid, stating they can only meet 50% to two-thirds of demand from key customers in the medium term. This supply-demand imbalance is the key to Micron's current pricing power and margin expansion. With limited industry capacity additions expected, the company is positioned to command premium prices for its memory, as evidenced by the nearly 20% sequential surge in average selling prices last quarter. The result is a virtuous cycle where soaring demand meets constrained supply, fueling both revenue growth and profitability.

Business Model Scalability and Financial Execution

Micron's financial execution is a masterclass in converting explosive demand into robust profitability. The company's pricing power is the standout feature, with DRAM average selling prices up nearly 20% sequentially last quarter. This isn't just a one-time pop; it's the direct result of severe supply constraints, allowing Micron to command premium rates for its memory. The impact on the bottom line was immediate and dramatic, driving the gross margin to 56.8%-an 11-percentage-point sequential leap. This expansion is the engine of the supercycle, turning top-line growth into exceptional cash generation.

That cash flow is record-setting. In the last quarter, Micron produced $3.9 billion in free cash flow, a new quarterly high that exceeds the previous record by over 20%. This massive liquidity is the fuel for the company's next phase: scaling production to meet future demand. The plan is concrete and ambitious. Management has announced the planned January 2026 start of construction for a new U.S. megafab in New York. This is a critical step to build the physical capacity needed to capture the projected $100 billion HBM TAM by 2028. The capital expenditure outlook reflects this commitment, with the fiscal 2026 CapEx budget raised to $20 billion to support advanced HBM and 1-gamma DRAM supply.

The scalability of this model is clear. Micron is leveraging its current pricing dominance and cash flow to fund its own expansion, creating a virtuous cycle. The record free cash flow also provides ample firepower for shareholder returns, with $300 million in buybacks already deployed this quarter. For a growth investor, this is the ideal setup: a company using its present market power to build the infrastructure for future dominance, all while returning significant capital to shareholders. The financials demonstrate a business model that is not just profitable today but is actively investing to ensure its growth trajectory remains steep for years to come.

Valuation, Catalysts, and Key Risks

Micron MU Trend Chart

The investment case for Micron hinges on its ability to scale its current pricing power into sustained, high-growth profitability. The aggressive analyst price target of $390 per share set by Mizuho reflects confidence in that trajectory, particularly on the back of a 23% earnings growth forecast for 2027. This outlook is built on the expectation that the company's exceptional gross margin expansion-driven by a nearly 20% sequential DRAM price hike-will continue as demand from AI accelerators outpaces supply.

The most concrete near-term catalyst is the company's own commitment to expanding capacity. The planned January 2026 start of construction for a new U.S. megafab in New York is a critical signal. It demonstrates management's intent to convert today's record free cash flow into the physical infrastructure needed to capture the projected $100 billion HBM TAM by 2028. This move directly addresses the supply constraint that is the foundation of the current supercycle.

Yet, the primary risk to this growth story is a cyclical reversal. The entire thesis depends on supply remaining tight. Management has been clear, stating they can only meet 50% to two-thirds of demand from key customers in the medium term. If industry capacity additions accelerate faster than anticipated, or if AI investment slows, the pricing power that is fueling margins could erode. While current guidance suggests this is not imminent, the memory cycle is inherently volatile. The stock's recent overbought technical levels underscore the market's sensitivity to any shift in the supply-demand balance.

For a growth investor, the setup is compelling but requires tolerance for volatility. The valuation on earnings appears attractive, but the trailing free cash flow multiple of 78x is a stark reminder of the premium paid for future growth. The path forward is clear: Micron must successfully scale its capacity to meet insatiable AI demand. The January megafab start is the first major step, turning a powerful demand tailwind into a scalable, profitable business.