Metal DAO/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price action remained range-bound between 5.08e-06 and 5.21e-06, with no clear directional bias.
• RSI readings clustered in neutral territory, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions.
• Volume was muted for most of the period, with a sudden spike during the overnight session.
• A bearish rejection pattern emerged near 5.21e-06, potentially signaling short-term resistance.
• Volatility expanded during a late-night pullback from 5.21e-06 to 5.12e-06.

The MTLBTC pair opened at 5.17e-06 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.1e-06 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.21e-06 and a low of 5.06e-06 during the period. Total volume amounted to 29,707.9, with a notional turnover of approximately 148.5. The pair remained range-bound for most of the session, showing limited directional bias.

Structure & Formations

Price action on MTLBTC remained within a tight range, bounded by key levels at 5.08e-06 (support) and 5.21e-06 (resistance). A notable bearish rejection pattern appeared in the early morning session when price reached 5.21e-06 and reversed downward. A small bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a pullback from the upper boundary. A long-legged doji formed near 5.17e-06 during the evening, suggesting indecision. No bullish continuation patterns emerged, and the pair showed signs of consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained closely aligned, indicating no strong trend. The 20SMA crossed slightly above the 50SMA toward midday but did not form a definitive golden cross. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period averages were converging, with price hovering slightly below the 100SMA. This suggests a potential setup for a retest of the 50SMA as a near-term support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained near the zero line for most of the 24-hour window, with no clear signal line crossovers. A mild bearish divergence appeared in the late morning as price moved higher while the MACD line declined slightly. RSI readings stayed between 40 and 60, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. A brief drop to 39 in the early morning suggested mild oversold conditions but lacked a strong reversal follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the overnight pullback, causing the Bollinger Bands to widen. Price briefly touched the upper band at 5.21e-06 before retracting. The lower band provided temporary support near 5.12e-06. As the session progressed, price remained within the bands but did not show signs of a breakout. A consolidation phase appears in place, with price oscillating within one standard deviation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was subdued for most of the session, with a sharp increase observed during the overnight hours (around 2–4 AM ET), where price dropped from 5.21e-06 to 5.12e-06. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the move downward. However, price failed to hold above 5.13e-06, suggesting bearish conviction despite the volume. In the following hours, volume dropped off again, aligning with the lack of directional movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 5.08e-06 to 5.21e-06, the 50% level at 5.145e-06 coincided with a brief consolidation. The 61.8% level at 5.148e-06 acted as a minor support during a morning rebound. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent leg from 5.1e-06 to 5.21e-06 sits at 5.155e-06, a potential target for short-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a breakout-based approach using Bollinger Bands and RSI divergence. When price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI shows a bullish divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low), a long entry is triggered with a stop below the lower band. This strategy aligns with the recent price action, where price touched the upper band but failed to break out, indicating a possible failure setup. A successful breakout may require increased volume and a sustained close above 5.21e-06.