Metal DAO/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-24

• Price tested key resistance at 5.89e-06 before consolidating near 5.83e-06.
• Volatility spiked during 22:30–23:00 ET with a sharp 5.83e-06–5.9e-06 swing.
• Volume surged during the 22:30 ET session, but failed to confirm a breakout.
• RSI showed overbought conditions during 02:00–03:00 ET, followed by a sharp sell-off.
• A bullish 5.85e-06–5.89e-06 wedge formation suggests potential for further upside.

The Metal DAO/Bitcoin pair (MTLBTC) opened at 5.85e-06 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.91e-06 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.91e-06 and a low of 5.79e-06. Total traded volume was 50,833.7 units, with a notional turnover of $298.89 million, reflecting elevated activity and price volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a consolidation phase with a potential wedge formation between 5.85e-06 and 5.89e-06. Key support levels include 5.85e-06 and 5.83e-06, with resistance at 5.89e-06 and 5.91e-06. A notable bearish reversal pattern appeared at 03:30 ET, where the pair fell from 5.89e-06 to 5.83e-06. A doji formed at 06:00 ET, suggesting indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, indicating a neutral trend. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA briefly around 08:30 ET, forming a potential bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs showed a slight positive divergence, supporting a cautious long bias for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 02:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover that coincided with a price push to 5.9e-06. However, the divergence between the MACD and price after 03:30 ET suggests weakening momentum. RSI reached overbought levels around 02:30 ET, with a sharp sell-off following at 04:00 ET, indicating a potential short-term top.

Bollinger Bands

Price action stayed within the Bollinger Bands for much of the day, with brief expansions observed around 22:30 ET and 08:30 ET. The narrowing of the bands between 05:00 and 07:00 ET suggested a period of consolidation, which was broken at 08:30 ET when the price surged above the upper band. Price hovered near the upper band for most of the morning, showing strong bullish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 22:30 ET session, with a high of 12,404.1 units traded, but failed to push price above the 5.91e-06 level. A large volume at 03:30 ET confirmed a bearish breakdown from 5.89e-06 to 5.83e-06. Turnover reached $298.89 million, showing strong notional value despite the sideways price action. Price and volume aligned during the 22:30–23:00 ET and 08:30 ET sessions, confirming directional movements.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 5.79e-06 to 5.91e-06 swing, key levels include 38.2% at 5.85e-06, 50% at 5.85e-06, and 61.8% at 5.87e-06. The price tested the 61.8% level around 09:00 ET before rebounding. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at 5.86e-06 was a significant support level during the 04:15 ET session.

Looking ahead, MTLBTC appears poised for a potential breakout from the 5.89e-06 resistance if volume and momentum align in the coming 24 hours. Traders should monitor the 5.91e-06 and 5.85e-06 levels for directional clues. As always, risk management remains essential due to the high volatility and thin liquidity in this pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop loss placed at the nearest Fibonacci support level. This setup was observed at 08:30 ET when the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA and RSI crossed above 50. The strategy would aim to capitalize on bullish momentum during consolidation phases, while using Fibonacci retracements to manage risk during pullbacks.