Meta (META) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $700 Dominate as AI Delays Loom—Here’s How to Play the Volatility

• Meta’s price action shows a 0.39% intraday gain, trading at $667.02 amid a short-term bullish trend but long-term consolidation.
• Options data reveals heavy call open interest at the $700 strike (17,493 contracts) and puts at $600 (12,702 contracts), with a put/call ratio of 0.603 favoring bullish positioning.
• Block trades highlight a $2.37M call block at META20260116C770, signaling long-term conviction in a potential AI-driven rally.

The market is betting on a breakout—or a breakdown. With Meta’s stock hovering near its 200-day moving average ($671.11) and AI-related news creating mixed signals, the options data tells a story of cautious optimism. Here’s how to navigate the tension between bullish options flows and bearish fundamentals.Bullish Calls at $700 vs. Bearish Puts at $600: A Battle for Control

The options chain is split between aggressive bullish bets and defensive downside hedges. For this Friday’s expiration, the $700 call strike dominates with 17,493 open contracts—nearly double the next highest strike. This suggests traders are pricing in a potential pop above $700, possibly driven by the upcoming AI model launches. Yet the $600 put strike (12,702 OI) acts as a psychological floor, with the lower Bollinger Band at $599.15 reinforcing its significance.

The block trade at META20260116C770 ($770 call, expiring Jan 16, 2026) is telling. A $2.37M trade implies institutional players are locking in exposure for a long-term rally, likely tied to Meta’s AI roadmap. However, the recent sell-off of calls at $780 and $800 (expiring Nov 21) hints at profit-taking or hedging by existing bulls. This duality—long-term bullishness vs. short-term caution—creates a volatile setup.

AI Delays and Internal Friction: Do They Matter?

Meta’s AI delays and internal leadership tensions (Alexandr Wang’s frustrations, Llama 4’s underperformance) could weigh on the stock. But the market seems to be discounting these risks. The recent regulatory news—Trump’s AI order reducing state-level fragmentation—has been a tailwind, with analysts like Dan Ives calling it a "major win" for Big Tech. This regulatory clarity might explain the call-heavy options flow, as investors bet on a smoother path for Meta’s AI commercialization.

That said, the $70–72 billion AI capex plan and insider selling (33 transactions in three months) add noise. The key question: Will the AI delays force a re-rating of Meta’s growth story, or will the $44.45 billion cash hoard and 15.1% three-year revenue growth offset concerns? For now, the options market is leaning toward the latter.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

1. Bull Call Spread for Short-Term Volatility

• Buy the META20251219C670 (this Friday’s $670 call) at ~$10.50 and sell the META20251219C700 at ~$7.00. This captures upside if Meta breaks above $670 (current 30D support at $646.45) while capping risk. Target: $700 breakeven; maximum profit if Meta hits $700 by Friday.

1. Bear Put Spread for Downside Protection

• Buy the META20251219P600 (this Friday’s $600 put) at ~$12.00 and sell the META20251219P590 at ~$8.50. This hedges against a drop below the lower Bollinger Band ($599.15), with limited risk if the stock holds above $600.

1. Stock Entry Strategy

• Consider buying META near $665 if it holds above the 200D MA ($671.11). A break above $677.77 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the 30D resistance at $648.14. Stop-loss: $659.62 (intraday low). Target: $687.47 (upper Bollinger Band) if AI optimism fuels a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Hope and Caution

The next two weeks will test Meta’s resolve. The AI model delays are a near-term headwind, but the regulatory tailwinds and call-heavy options flow suggest a bias toward $700+ by January. Traders should monitor the META20260116C770 block trade—its size and expiration date imply a long-term bet on AI-driven growth. For now, the stock is dancing on a tightrope: bullish options, bearish fundamentals, and a $670 psychological threshold. The question isn’t whether Meta will move—it’s how it will move. And that’s where the opportunity lies.