Meta (META) Options Signal Bearish Imbalance at $800 Call OI: Short-Term Downtrend Amid AI Expansion Hype

• Meta’s price fell 1.06% to $740.97, trading below its 30D MA of $757.68 and near the lower Bollinger Band at $730.10.
• Options data shows a 0.68 put/call open interest ratio, with $800 OTM calls (OI: 10,747) and $730 OTM puts (OI: 3,553) as key liquidity zones.
• Block trades reveal aggressive selling of 2025-11-21 $780 and $800 calls, signaling bearish positioning ahead of Q4 earnings.

Core Insight: Meta’s technicals and options activity point to a short-term bearish bias, with $730–$740 as critical support. While AI-driven news fuels long-term optimism, near-term volatility from energy costs and regulatory risks could pressure the stock below key moving averages.Bearish Call Imbalance and Whale Trades Signal Short-Term Pressure

The options chain reveals a stark imbalance: $800 OTM calls (OI: 10,747) and $780 OTM calls (OI: 9,694) dominate open interest for Friday expiration, while $730 OTM puts (OI: 3,553) and $740 OTM puts (OI: 2,787) anchor downside liquidity. This suggests institutional players are hedging against a potential breakdown below $730 or positioning for a short-term selloff. The 0.68 put/call ratio (calls: 1.19M, puts: 812K) further confirms bearish sentiment, as traders favor calls to cap losses rather than bets on a rebound.

Notable block trades amplify this narrative. The META20251121C780 and META20251121C800 calls were sold in bulk (300–200 contracts), indicating large players are offloading bullish exposure ahead of November expiration. Meanwhile, the META20260116C770 block trade (400 contracts, $2.37M turnover) hints at long-term bearishness, as traders lock in short positions for a 2026 expiration. These moves suggest a strategic shift from AI optimism to caution, particularly as Meta’s Louisiana data center faces scrutiny over energy costs and public risk.

AI Expansion News vs. Short-Term Volatility Risks

Meta’s recent headlines—$10B Louisiana data center, AI partnerships with Reliance, and Ohio “supercluster” expansion—underscore its long-term AI ambitions. However, these projects also expose the company to near-term headwinds:

• Energy and regulatory risks: Critics warn Louisiana’s tax exemptions could cost the state tens of millions annually, while Ohio’s $1.5B expansion faces community displacement concerns.
• Political lobbying: The American Technology Excellence Project’s $10M+ super PAC spending highlights regulatory uncertainty, which could weigh on investor confidence.

While AI-driven growth stories justify a bullish thesis, the options market is pricing in short-term volatility. The RSI at 48.33 and MACD histogram at -1.60 indicate weakening momentum, aligning with the bearish options flow. Traders must balance long-term AI optimism with near-term risks like energy costs and regulatory pushback.

Actionable Trade Setups for MetaOptions Strategy:

• Short the $800 OTM call (META240920C00800000) for Friday expiration. With 10,747 contracts in open interest, a breakdown below $780 could trigger rapid decay. Target a 20–30% move to $750–$760, with a stop-loss at $785.
• Buy the $740 OTM put (META240920P00740000) for next Friday’s expiration. If Meta breaks below the 30D support at $738.12, this strike offers leverage to $720–$730, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5.

Stock Position:

• Enter a short near $740.97 if the price holds above the lower Bollinger Band at $730.10. Target $725–$730 as a first stop, with a long-term exit at $713.50 (100D MA).
• Buy on a rebound to $738.12 (30D support) with a stop above $750.00 (today’s open). A break above $751.93 (intraday high) could signal a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s options activity and technicals paint a mixed picture: short-term bearishness from energy costs and regulatory risks clashes with long-term AI-driven optimism. Traders should prioritize liquidity-rich strikes like $800 calls and $740 puts for directional bets, while monitoring the 200D MA at $663.92 as a critical long-term floor. With earnings season approaching and AI infrastructure projects ramping up, volatility is likely to persist—making structured options strategies and tight stop-losses essential for navigating the near-term uncertainty.