Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Call Contention Amid AI Strategy Shift – Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Meta’s price surged 1.14% to $651.02, trading above its 200D MA of $671.11 but below its 100D MA of $710.12.
• Options data shows a 0.61 put/call OI ratio, with heavy call interest at $700 and $1000 strikes, and puts clustered at $600–$620.
• Block trades hint at institutional bets: A $2.37M call block at $770 (expiring Jan 16, 2026) suggests bullish positioning for a potential AI-driven rebound.

Here’s the takeaway: Meta’s options market is pricing in a high-stakes battle between AI optimism and regulatory headwinds. The stock’s 1.14% intraday gain masks a fragile technical setup—RSI at 66.9 hints at overbought conditions, while MACD (-0.48) and a short-term bearish Kline pattern warn of near-term profit-taking. But the real story lies in the options: A 3.2x call/put OI imbalance at key strikes suggests traders are hedging for a breakout above $686 (Bollinger Upper Band) or a breakdown below $632 (middle band).

The $700 Call Wall and Institutional Bets

Let’s unpack the options data. This Friday’s OTM call OI peaks at $700 (18,887 contracts) and $1000 (16,419), while puts cluster at $600 (17,274) and $620 (11,779). The 0.61 put/call ratio isn’t just bullish—it’s aggressively bullish. Traders are pricing in a 7.5% move above current levels, with the $700 strike acting as a psychological wall.

But don’t ignore the block trades. The largest, a $2.37M bet on META20260116C770 (expiring Jan 16), suggests big money is eyeing a 2026 rebound. Meanwhile, recent sell calls at $780 and $800 (expiring Nov 21) indicate short-term hedging by institutions. The risk? If Meta’s AI pivot falters or regulatory scrutiny intensifies, these calls could turn into a liquidity trap.

AI Strategy Shifts vs. Ad Fraud Scrutiny

Meta’s news flow is a mixed bag. On one hand, the AI pivot—rebranding to Meta Superintelligence Labs and hiring top talent—has Citigroup and Morgan Stanley raising price targets to $900. On the other, the ad fraud scandal in China and EU ad personalization rules could weigh on sentiment. The stock’s 19% drop from its 52-week high reflects this tension.

Here’s the kicker: Retail traders are betting on the AI narrative. The Disney+ VR launch and “closed” AI model rumors (codenamed Avocado) could drive short-term hype. But if earnings estimates keep getting cut (current 2025 EPS at $23.43, down 1.8% YoY), the $638 intraday low becomes a critical support level to watch.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Dec 15

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Bullish: Buy META20251219C700 (this Friday’s $700 call) if Meta breaks above $652.32 (intraday high). Target a 10–15% move to $720 by expiration.
• Bearish: Buy META20251226C630 (next Friday’s $630 put) if the stock dips below $638.70 (intraday low). Use the $632 middle Bollinger Band as a stop-loss.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $638.70 if support holds. Target $686.46 (upper Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss at $620 (key put OI cluster).
• Short-term swing trade: Enter at $645–$647 (current price range) with a target at $670 (aligning with call OI hotspots) and a tight stop at $635.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s options market is a chessboard of competing narratives. The AI-driven optimism is real, but so are the risks of regulatory backlash and earnings misses. The $700 call wall and block trades suggest a 2026 rally is being priced in now, but December’s near-term action hinges on whether the stock can hold above $632. If it breaks that level, the $578 lower Bollinger Band becomes a death trap.

Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. Position yourself with a mix of bullish calls and defensive puts, and watch the $638–$686 range like a hawk. The next two weeks could decide whether Meta’s AI gamble pays off—or crumbles under its own weight.