Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Call Contention as AI Hype Meets Reality Check – Here’s How to Play the Imbalance

• Meta’s options market shows a 0.58 put/call open interest ratio, favoring bullish bets with heavy call OI at $690–$700.
• Block trades suggest institutional hedging: 400 contracts sold on a 2026 $770 call, hinting at long-term AI optimism.
• Price action is caught between 30D support ($608) and 200D resistance ($747), with RSI near overbought territory.

Here’s the thing: Meta’s stock isn’t just trading—it’s negotiating. The $651 price tag today feels like a standoff between AI hype and profit-taking reality. Options data leans bullish, but technicals whisper caution. Let’s break it down.

The Call-Put Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Tale of Two $700s

The options chain is a chessboard. This Friday’s top call open interest piles up at $690 ($OI: 13,270) and $700 ($OI: 8,883), while puts cluster at $630 ($OI: 7,503) and $600 ($OI: 4,791). Next Friday’s data amplifies the bullish tilt: $700 calls ($OI: 18,395) and $1,000 calls ($OI: 15,053) dominate.

But don’t ignore the puts. That $600 strike ($OI: 13,202) isn’t just a safety net—it’s a psychological floor. The block trades tell a mixed story: 400 contracts sold on a 2026 $770 call (META20260116C770) suggest hedging against near-term volatility, while pre-December $780 and $800 call sales (META20251121C780, META20251121C800) hint at profit-taking after AI-driven rallies.

AI Ambitions vs. Reality Checks: How News Shapes the Narrative

Meta’s AI pivot—shifting from open-source to proprietary models—fuels the bullish bets. The TBD Lab’s "Avocado" project and the Limitless acquisition align with Rosenblatt’s $1,117 price target. But here’s the catch: raising VR headset prices and account shutdowns for reproductive health groups could sour retail sentiment.

Analysts love the story, but investors need to ask: Can Meta monetize AI without alienating its user base? The $0.525 dividend is a nod to shareholders, but Reality Labs’ $73B loss since 2021 still looms. This tension—innovation vs. execution—will define the next leg of the move.

Trade Ideas: Play the $700 Call Contention, Hedge the $600 Floor

For options traders, the META20251219C690 call (next Friday’s $690 strike) is a high-conviction play. With 10,082 open contracts, it’s where retail and institutional money are converging. If Meta cracks above its 200D MA ($671) and Bollinger Upper Band ($682.93), this strike could see explosive volume.

But don’t ignore the puts. The META20251219P600 ($OI: 13,202) acts as a floor. If the 30D support ($608–$611) breaks, this put could cap losses. For stock traders, consider entries near $610 (30D support) with a target at $680 (Bollinger Upper Band) and a stop below $600.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Near-Term Risks

Meta’s story is a tightrope walk. The options market is pricing in a $700+ future, but technicals and news suggest a bumpy path. RSI at 70.9 hints at overbought conditions, and the MACD histogram (-8.13) shows bearish momentum.

Here’s the takeaway: Play the AI narrative with the $690 call, but keep a hedge on the $600 put. This isn’t a straight-line trade—it’s a dance between innovation and execution. And in that dance, the most disciplined traders will win.