Síntesis de opciones de Meta (META) $675: cómo posicionarse para la volatilidad impulsada por IA

• META drops 1.89% to $647.59 amid mixed AI news and regulatory scrutiny
• Options data shows 68% more call open interest than puts, with heavy concentration at $675-$685 strikes
• Block trade of 400 contracts at $770 strike hints at whale anticipation of AI-driven move

Here’s the thing: Meta’s options market is whispering a story of cautious optimism. While the stock slumps below its 30-day moving average, the options data and technicals suggest a potential rebound scenario. The key question isn’t whether Meta will move—it’s whether traders are positioned to capitalize if it breaks above $675. Let’s break down why this level matters and how to play it.

The $675 Bull Trap: What Options Are Telling Us

The options market is a goldmine of crowd-sourced wisdom. Right now, the top OTM call options for this Friday’s expiration are clustered between $670 and $685, with 10,635 contracts open at the $675 strike alone. That’s not random—it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players. The put side tells a different story: while there’s meaningful interest at $647.5 (2,712 OI), the overall put/call ratio of 0.595 means calls dominate by nearly 2:1.

But here’s the catch: the block trade of 400 contracts at META20260116C770 (expiring Jan 16) suggests someone with deep pockets is hedging for a sharp move. That $770 strike is 16% above current price—aggressive, but not impossible if the AI acquisition story gains traction. Meanwhile, the $647.5 put strike lines up almost perfectly with the 30-day support level (646.45–648.14), making it a logical short-term floor.

AI Optimism vs. Ad Scandal: Which Story Wins?

Meta’s $2B acquisition of Manus is the headline act, but the regulatory drama around scam ads is the silent villain. On one hand, Piper Sandler’s $840 price target and AI-driven ad growth narrative are bullish. On the other, the internal documents revealing ad library manipulations could erode trust. The market is pricing in a middle ground: the stock isn’t rallying on the AI news (yet) but isn’t collapsing under regulatory pressure either.

This duality creates a trading sweet spot. If the AI integration story gains momentum—say, through Q4 earnings beats or new product announcements—the $675-$685 calls could ignite. But if the ad scandal escalates, the $647.5 put strike becomes a critical psychological level. Retail traders need to decide which narrative they’re betting on.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Caution

For the bullish case: Buy META20260102C675 (this Friday’s $675 call) if the stock closes above $660 by midday. The RSI at 56 and MACD above signal line suggest momentum could turn. Target $690 by expiration; stop loss below $650.

For the bearish case: Buy META20260102P647.5 (this Friday’s $647.5 put) if the price tests the 30-day support zone. The Bollinger Band lower bound at $640.96 adds a safety net. Target $630 by Friday close; exit if the stock rebounds above $660.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $646.45 (30-day support) with a tight stop below $643.5. If it holds, target $675 (Bollinger Band upper bound) as a first objective. For a longer play, buy on a break above $673.21 (200-day MA) with a $665 stop.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Ad Realities

The next two weeks will test Meta’s narrative. The $675 strike is a psychological milestone—clearing it could validate the AI monetization thesis and trigger a wave of call options. But the $647.5 support zone is equally critical; a breakdown there would force a reevaluation of both the stock and its options.

Traders need to stay nimble. The block trades and open interest suggest a high-stakes game of chicken: bulls are betting on AI-driven growth, bears on regulatory drag. Your move? Pick a side—or hedge with a collar strategy using the $675 call and $647.5 put. Either way, the coming days will decide whether Meta’s AI gamble pays off—or becomes another cautionary tale.