MercadoLibre Rises 3.13% As Bullish Signals Emerge Amid Key Resistance Test

Candlestick Theory
Mercadolibre’s price action shows a 3.13% bullish candle on August 15, closing near its session high ($2,392.30) after testing resistance at $2,432.83. This pattern suggests accumulation after three sessions of consolidation between $2,313–$2,350. Key support is established at $2,317–$2,342 (recent lows), while resistance converges near $2,430–$2,480 (early August peaks). A confirmed break above $2,432.83 could signal renewed bullish momentum, though failure may reactivate the $2,313 support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA ($2,380) and 100-day EMA ($2,320) exhibit a bullish crossover above the 200-day EMA ($2,150), confirming Mercadolibre’s long-term uptrend. However, the current price ($2,392.30) hovers below the 50-day EMA, indicating short-term consolidation. A sustained close above $2,400 would realign with the primary trend, whereas a breakdown below the 100-day EMA might signal near-term weakness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) registers a bearish crossover but shows narrowing histogram bars, suggesting weakening downside momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) rebounds from oversold territory (K: 30, D: 28 on August 13) to neutral levels (K: 55, D: 48), supporting near-term recovery potential. While no reversal confirmation exists, KDJ’s upward trajectory may precede bullish MACD convergence if buying pressure persists.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted sharply after August 6’s volatility spike ($2,284–$2,455), reflecting reduced volatility. The price currently tests the mid-Band ($2,370), with the upper Band at $2,450 offering resistance. A breakout above the mid-Band coupled with Band expansion could catalyze upside momentum. Conversely, compression near $2,370 increases breakout/breakdown sensitivity.
Volume-Price Relationship
The August 15 advance occurred on 410,942 shares—above the 10-day average (355,000)—validating bullish conviction. However, volume remains below the August 5–6 distribution spikes (1.12M and 616,178 shares, respectively), warranting caution. Sustained volume above 400,000 shares on further gains would reinforce trend sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (44) rebounds from oversold territory (30 on August 13) but remains neutral. This recovery aligns with price stabilization, though RSI <50 indicates residual bearish inertia. A climb above 50 would support bullish momentum, while failure to hold 40 may reactivate selling pressure. No overbought/oversold extremes currently apply.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June–August rally (low: $1,758; high: $2,480) identifies key levels. The 23.6% retracement ($2,320) underpinned recent lows, confirming robust support. Confluent resistance emerges at the 0% level ($2,480), aligned with the August 5 peak. A breach above $2,430 (38.2% extension) may target $2,600, while $2,320 breakdown could expose the 38.2% retracement ($2,210).
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence exists at $2,320–$2,342 (Fibonacci 23.6%, volume-supported support, and 100-day EMA). Bullish agreement appears in volume-backed price stabilization, RSI recovery, and KDJ oversold rebound. However, MACD’s lingering bearish crossover diverges from short-term momentum indicators—a reversal signal remains unconfirmed. Probable upside prevails if $2,430 is breached; failure risks retesting $2,320.