MercadoLibre: equilibrar el alto crecimiento con riesgos de crédito y competitivos escalados

MercadoLibre (MELI) has long been a poster child for Latin America's digital transformation, leveraging its dual focus on e-commerce and fintech to dominate markets across the region. However, as the company accelerates reinvestment in logistics and credit expansion in 2025, investors face a critical question: Do these strategic bets justify the margin pressures and rising bad debt risks? With revenue surging 39% year-over-year to $7.41 billion in Q3 2025, MercadoLibre's fintech arm, Mercado Pago, now accounts for 44% of total revenue, underscoring its shift toward financial services. Yet, this growth comes at a cost-operating margins have compressed to 9.8%, and non-performing loan (NPL) ratios remain a concern.

The Growth-At-All-Costs Strategy: Fintech and Logistics as Dual Engines

MercadoLibre's reinvestment strategy is anchored in two pillars: expanding its fintech offerings and fortifying its logistics network. The credit portfolio, a key fintech driver, grew 83% year-over-year to $11.0 billion in Q3 2025, with Mercado Pago's credit card becoming the most used in Brazil. This expansion is not merely about scale-it's about deepening user engagement. By integrating e-commerce with financial services, MercadoLibre creates a flywheel effect: users rely on Mercado Pago for transactions, which in turn fuels credit demand, further embedding the platform into daily financial life.

Logistics, meanwhile, has seen significant capital allocation. Mercado Envios now handles 95% of the company's shipments, with fulfillment center capacity up 41% year-over-year. These investments have reduced delivery times in key markets like Brazil and Argentina, boosting customer retention. According to a report by , this logistics dominance reinforces MercadoLibre's "moat," as competitors struggle to replicate its infrastructure in a region fragmented by poor physical infrastructure.

Margin Compression and Credit Risks: The Cost of Growth

Despite these gains, MercadoLibre's aggressive reinvestment has strained profitability. Operating margins fell to 9.8% in Q3 2025, a decline attributed to higher logistics costs and credit expansion. The credit portfolio's rapid growth, while lucrative, carries inherent risks. As of Q3 2025, 6.8% of loans were 15–90 days past due, and 17.6% exceeded 90 days. While this represents an improvement from Q1's 8.2% NPL ratio according to reports, analysts caution that the speed of loan issuance-Mercado Pago's credit card portfolio grew 104% year-over-year-could lead to future delinquency spikes.

In Argentina, for instance, macroeconomic instability has already impacted profitability. Credit portfolio growth hit 100% year-over-year, but rising funding costs eroded net interest margins after losses (NIMAL). This highlights a broader tension: MercadoLibre's ability to scale credit in volatile markets is both a strength and a vulnerability.

Competitive Pressures: Can the Moat Withstand Global Giants?

MercadoLibre's dominance faces mounting challenges from global players like Amazon and Chinese firms. A Seeking Alpha analysis notes that Amazon's foray into Latin American e-commerce and the influx of Chinese tech companies could erode MercadoLibre's market share. While the company's logistics and fintech integration provides a defensive edge according to analysis, its reliance on organic growth in a region with uneven internet penetration and regulatory hurdles remains a risk.

Is the Moat Durable? A Risk-Adjusted Growth Perspective

The durability of MercadoLibre's moat hinges on its ability to balance growth with risk management. On one hand, its ecosystem-linking commerce, payments, and logistics-creates high switching costs for users. On the other, the company's margin pressures and credit risks suggest a trade-off between short-term profitability and long-term scale.

Analysts remain divided. Some argue that MercadoLibre's free cash flow generation and expanding credit portfolio support long-term growth, while others warn of margin compression from continued reinvestment according to reports. The key differentiator may be MercadoLibre's ability to maintain asset quality. With delinquency rates stabilizing at 6.8% and older credit cohorts in Brazil now profitable, the company appears to be navigating the risks-albeit with caution.

Conclusion: Justifying the Reinvestment?

MercadoLibre's reinvestment in fintech and logistics is a high-stakes bet. The company's ecosystem remains a formidable moat, driven by its integrated platform and regional dominance. However, investors must weigh the trade-offs: margin compression and credit risks are real, and competitive threats loom large. For now, the data suggests that MercadoLibre's growth justifies the reinvestment-provided it can maintain asset quality and adapt to macroeconomic headwinds. Whether this translates to a re-rating in 2026 will depend on its ability to sustain profitability while scaling its ecosystem.