Meme Coins at a Price Crossroads: Evaluating DOGE vs. SHIB as Under-$1 Investments

Dogecoin's tokenomics reflect its origins as a joke-turned-phenomenon. With a circulating supply exceeding 150 billion coins and a market cap of $26–$35 billion, DOGE's large supply base has diluted its growth potential. Analysts note that the token is entering a "mature phase," where gains are increasingly tied to broader market rallies rather than standalone hype, as noted in a coincodex analysis.

A key development in 2025 is the Bitwise Spot Dogecoin ETF filing, which initiated a 20-day SEC review window, as reported in a Blockonomi report. If approved, this ETF could institutionalize DOGE by offering regulated exposure to a broader investor base. Technically, DOGE's price action has shown a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout toward $0.35, according to the Blockonomi report. However, its inflationary model-adding 1 billion new coins annually-limits long-term scarcity, making it a speculative bet on macro trends rather than intrinsic value.

SHIB: Deflationary Ambitions

Shiba Inu, launched as a "Dogecoin killer," has taken a different approach. By 2025, SHIB's total supply has shrunk to 585.2 trillion tokens from an initial 1 quadrillion, driven by aggressive burn activity. Over 7.9 million SHIB tokens were burned in a single day, reflecting a 2,381% surge in burn rate, according to a Benzinga report. This deflationary mechanism, absent in DOGE, could theoretically support price appreciation by reducing supply.

SHIB's institutional recognition has also advanced. Its inclusion in the FTSE Grayscale Crypto Sectors Framework under the "Consumer & Culture" category, as noted in a Crypto Basic report, signals growing legitimacy. While no standalone SHIB ETF exists, the token is eligible for inclusion in ETPs under the SEC's Generic Listing Standards (GLS), aligning it with DOGE in the race for institutional adoption, according to the Crypto Basic report. However, SHIB's lack of concrete economic model updates-unlike DOGE's ETF filing-leaves its capital inflow potential less defined.

Capital Inflow Potential: ETFs and Beyond

The primary catalyst for both tokens is institutional access. DOGE's ETF filing, if approved, could trigger a liquidity surge, particularly if it mirrors Bitcoin's ETF-driven rally. Conversely, SHIB's eligibility for ETPs remains speculative, as no U.S. provider has yet applied for a SHIB-specific product.

Retail investors, however, are drawn to SHIB's deflationary narrative. The project's marketing team has highlighted its "community-driven" ethos, a trait that resonates in a market where sentiment often drives price action, as noted in a Crypto Basic report. DOGE, meanwhile, benefits from its entrenched brand and celebrity endorsements, though these advantages are now well-priced into its valuation.

Risks and Considerations

Both tokens face inherent risks. DOGE's large supply and inflationary model make it vulnerable to bear markets, while SHIB's reliance on burns could falter if trading volume declines. Regulatory scrutiny also looms: The SEC's stance on meme coins remains ambiguous, and any adverse rulings could dampen enthusiasm for both projects.

For investors, the choice hinges on risk tolerance. DOGE offers a "blue-chip" meme coin profile with ETF-driven upside, while SHIB's deflationary mechanics and institutional eligibility present a higher-risk, higher-reward scenario.

Conclusion

Meme coins like DOGE and SHIB occupy a unique niche in the crypto ecosystem, blending cultural appeal with speculative potential. As of November 2025, DOGE's institutional momentum and brand strength give it a slight edge in capital inflow potential, but SHIB's deflationary model and growing recognition could close the gap. Investors should monitor the Bitwise ETF's regulatory fate and SHIB's burn rate trends, while remaining mindful of the sector's inherent volatility.