Is Meme Coin Season Back? Evaluating Risk, Momentum, and Retail Sentiment in December 2025

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater for speculative frenzies, but few phenomena capture the volatile spirit of retail-driven hype quite like meme coins. As we approach the end of 2025, the resurgence of Pump.fun-a platform synonymous with Solana-based meme token creation-has reignited debates about whether a new "meme coin season" is underway. With over 20,000 new tokens launched daily on Pump.fun in December 2025, coupled with a 185% surge in active wallets, the data suggests a feverish rekindling of interest. Yet, beneath the surface, the metrics tell a more nuanced story: one of divergent momentum, fragile retail sentiment, and a market still grappling with the scars of earlier 2025's collapse.

The Paradox of Pump.fun: Volume vs. Value

Pump.fun's token creation activity has reached a near-hysterical pace, with daily launches peaking at 25,000 in early December. However, this surge has not translated into proportional gains for the platform's native token, PUMP. Despite the influx of new tokens, Pump.fun's DEX volume and revenue have remained over 80% below early 2025 levels, and its 24-hour trading volume of $142 million as of late November reflects a -21.30% drop from the prior day. The PUMP token itself trades at $0.003184, with a projected 0.42% monthly growth rate, a modest trajectory that contrasts sharply with the exuberance of token creation.

This disconnect between activity and value raises critical questions. While the platform's low barrier to entry and viral token dynamics have attracted millions of retail participants, the survival rate of these tokens is abysmal-only 1% graduate to external exchanges. The result is a speculative ecosystem where short-term FOMO (fear of missing out) drives participation, but long-term utility remains elusive.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed Bag of Signals

Technical analysis of Pump.fun's price action reveals a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for PUMP stands at 42.71, signaling a neutral market according to analysis, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows bullish divergence, rising above the zero line amid a broader bearish trend. This suggests potential for a reversal, but the Fear & Greed Index-currently at 23 (Extreme Fear) underscores the fragility of retail sentiment.

Token velocity metrics further complicate the picture. While PUMP's price briefly rebounded to $0.0041 in late November, it has since retreated, with predictions of a 23.42% drop to $0.002232 by December 11. The MVRV ratio (a measure of realized vs. market value) at 0.28 indicates most holders are in minor profits or losses, a precarious equilibrium that could tip either way with a breakout above key resistance levels like $0.0048.

Broader Meme Coin Trends: A Sector in Transition

Pump.fun's activity is part of a larger narrative. The total memecoin market cap hit $48.3 billion in December 2025, driven by renewed retail interest and social media hype. Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) remain dominant, with market caps of $15.45 billion and $8.13 billion, respectively according to market data, while newer entrants like Pepe (PEPE) have surged in social activity and trading volume.

However, the sector's profitability is a double-edged sword. While meme coins outperformed other crypto sectors in 2025 with a +33.08% average PnL, their volatility remains extreme. For instance, Pump.fun's record $1.02 billion trading day in mid-2025 contrasts with its current $276 million DEX volume, a 72% decline since January 2025's peak according to market reports. This volatility is exacerbated by macroeconomic factors, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which briefly boosted Pump.fun by 46% in a seven-day period according to market analysis.

Retail Participation: Frenzy or Foresight?

On-chain data reveals a speculative frenzy. Pump.fun's active wallets surged from 30,000 to 300,000 between September and December 2025, while new users per day spiked from 11,000 to 170,000. Yet, this growth is largely driven by rapid, low-value transactions-USDC accounted for 97% of Pump.fun's crypto activity, reflecting a focus on liquidity over long-term value.

Social media sentiment analysis further highlights the role of viral trends in shaping Pump.fun's dynamics. While sentiment can predict short-term price swings, the broader market's "extreme fear" rating suggests caution. Retail investors, though active, are accumulating rather than speculating, with the MVRV ratio indicating limited upside before overheating occurs according to technical analysis.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For high-risk retail investors, the current Pump.fun environment presents a high-stakes game. The platform's technical indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound if PUMP breaks above $0.0048 according to technical analysis, but the Fear & Greed Index and declining DEX volume caution against overexposure. A diversified strategy-balancing established meme coins like DOGE with newer, utility-driven projects-may mitigate risk.

However, the speculative nature of Pump.fun tokens remains a red flag. With 99% of launched tokens failing to survive beyond 60 days, investors must weigh the allure of viral gains against the likelihood of rapid depreciation. For those with a higher risk tolerance, micro-allocations to high-velocity tokens could be justified, but only with strict stop-loss parameters.

Conclusion: A Fleeting Rally or a New Dawn?

The December 2025 data paints a mixed picture. While Pump.fun's token creation surge and retail participation suggest a possible return of meme coin enthusiasm, the platform's declining revenue, fragile technical indicators, and volatile market conditions point to a precarious equilibrium. The broader memecoin sector's resilience-evidenced by its $48.3 billion market cap-hints at enduring appeal, but sustainability remains unproven.

For now, the jury is out. Investors should treat Pump.fun and the broader meme coin sector as a high-risk, high-reward niche, prioritizing caution and diversification. If the market can stabilize and demonstrate real-world utility beyond viral trends, a genuine "meme coin season" may yet emerge. Until then, the dance between FOMO and caution continues.