Medicare Advantage Enrollment Projected to Decline in 2026

Medicare Advantage enrollment is projected to decline to 34 million subscribers in 2026, a decrease from 34.9 million in 2025. This marks a drop from 50% of the overall Medicare market in 2025 to about 48% in 2026, according to plan forecasts provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. The decline is attributed to fewer seniors opting for Medicare Advantage and instead choosing traditional Medicare.

Medicare Advantage enrollment is projected to decline to 34 million subscribers in 2026, marking a decrease from 34.9 million in 2025. This represents a drop from 50% of the overall Medicare market in 2025 to about 48% in 2026, according to plan forecasts provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1]. The decline is attributed to fewer seniors opting for Medicare Advantage and instead choosing traditional Medicare.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) anticipates that the Medicare market will remain stable, but health insurer filings point to higher deductibles and out-of-pocket costs for 2026 Medicare Advantage (MA) plans. Insurers have cut broker commissions on 15% to 20% of plans to discourage enrollment in unprofitable plans Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1]. Despite the projected pullback, CMS anticipates that enrollment in 2026 will be more robust than the plans' projections Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1].

Seniors will have an average of 10 plans to choose from in most markets when they get their first look at 2026 plans on Wednesday Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1]. However, the preliminary open enrollment period may see higher pricing across many of the large insurer plans, with analysts indicating that initial data on 2026 offerings point to higher prices for plans from major insurers such as UnitedHealth Group's UnitedHealthcare, CVS Health's Aetna, and others Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1].

The average monthly premium across Medicare Advantage plans is expected to decrease from $16.40 this year to $14 in 2026, but seniors may find higher pricing across many of the large insurer plans during the initial open enrollment period Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1]. Analysts say insurers are prioritizing HMO plans for 2026, which tend to have more limited provider networks. Although companies are raising deductibles on these plans, seniors will still see offerings with $0 premiums Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1].

Insurers are betting that with more restrictive offerings and enrollment, they can get a better handle on membership and costs for 2026. However, the market remains uncertain due to the significant disruption in enrollment and plan offerings Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1].

The Medicare open enrollment period runs from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7. Seniors are advised to shop around during this period and weigh their options carefully, as doing so can potentially save over $1,800 in out-of-pocket costs Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1]. A looming government shutdown, which could start Oct. 1, adds a bit more uncertainty to this year's enrollment, but CMS has assured that the open enrollment period will not be impacted Medicare Advantage enrollment expected to fall in 2026 as insurers cut back on unprofitable plans^[1].