Why Is Mattel (MAT) Up 2% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mattel (MAT). Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mattel due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Mattel, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Mattel Q4 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates

Mattel reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top line increased year over year, while the bottom line declined from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Mattel’s Q4 Earnings & Sales Discussion

MAT reported an adjusted EPS of 39 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. It reported an adjusted EPS of 35 cents in the prior-year quarter.

Net sales amounted to $1.77 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.84 billion. The top line increased 7% on a reported basis and 5% in constant currency (cc) basis year over year. Net sales in the North America segment increased 5% year over year on a reported basis and at cc. The International segment’s net sales increased 11% year over year on a reported basis and 5% year over year at cc.

In the North America segment, gross billings increased 7% (as reported and at cc) year over year. This upside was attributed to a rise in Dolls, Vehicles, Action Figures, Building Sets, Games and Other. Gross billings in the International segment increased 10% year over year on a reported basis and 4% at cc. The uptick was primarily driven by a rise in gross billings in the EMEA, Latin America and Asia Pacific regions.

MAT’s Category-Wise Worldwide Sales

Mattel, through its subsidiaries, sells a broad range of toys. These items are grouped under different categories: Dolls, Infant, Toddler and Preschool, Vehicles and Action Figures, Building Sets, Games and Other. Worldwide gross billings by Mattel Power Brands increased 8% year over year on a reported basis and 6% at cc to $2.04 billion. The gross billings for Barbie witnessed a rise of 2% year over year on a reported basis.

Gross billings for Hot Wheels increased 20% on a reported basis and 16% at cc year over year. On the other hand, gross billings for Fisher-Price increased 1% on a reported basis and declined 1% at cc year over year. Gross billings at Other increased 6% and 4% on a reported basis and at cc, respectively, year over year.

Mattel’s Q4 Operating Results

During the fourth quarter, Mattel’s adjusted gross margin was 46%, down 480 basis points year over year. The downside was attributed to higher discounts, inflation, unfavorable foreign exchange and the timing lag between mitigating actions and the recognition of tariff costs. However, this was partially offset by cost savings.

Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $234.2 million compared with $248.9 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Balance Sheet of MAT

As of Dec. 31, 2025, MAT’s cash and equivalents were $1.24 billion compared with $1.39 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024. Total inventories at the end of the quarter were $563.1 million compared with $501.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Long-term debt (as of Dec. 31, 2025) was $2.33 billion, almost flat year over year. Shareholders’ equity was $2.23 billion at the end of the quarter.

MAT 2025 Highlights

Net sales in 2025 amounted to $5.35 billion compared with $5.38 billion in 2024. Net income in 2025 came in at $397.6 million compared with $541.8 million reported in 2024. In 2025, adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.41 compared with $1.62 reported in the previous year.

MAT’s 2026 Outlook

Management expects 2026 net sales to increase in the range of 3-6% year over year. The company expects adjusted operating income to be between $550 and $600 million. Mattel anticipates adjusted EPS to be between $1.18 and $1.30 compared with $1.41 reported in 2025. The adjusted tax rate is considered to be approximately 24%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -58.6% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Mattel has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Mattel has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock

This under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.

With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.

See This Stock Now for Free >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Mattel, Inc. (MAT): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research