MATIC's Bullish Divergence and Path to $1: A Strategic Buy for Altcoin Season

Polygon’s native token, now rebranded as POL (formerly MATIC), has emerged as a compelling case for a strategic long-term investment in the current altcoin season. Technical momentum and on-chain accumulation patterns suggest a potential multi-month rally, with price targets reaching as high as $1.30 by 2025. This analysis synthesizes critical technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and ecosystem developments to build a robust case for immediate entry.

Bullish Divergence and RSI Oversold Conditions

The most compelling technical signal is the bullish divergence in MATIC’s RSI. Over the past month, the price has formed lower lows (e.g., $0.2190 in late August), while the RSI has created higher lows (38–41.73), indicating weakening bearish momentum [1]. This divergence, coupled with RSI entering oversold territory, historically signals a high probability of a rebound. Analysts project a 354% surge to $1.30 as buyers capitalize on this imbalance [2].

The MACD crossover further validates upward momentum. The indicator turned positive in late August, crossing above the signal line and confirming a shift in trend [5]. This aligns with a breakout above key Fibonacci resistance at $0.2699, a level that had previously capped gains for months. If MATIC holds above $0.2190, the next targets are $0.294 and $0.5170 by October 2025, representing a 104% short-term gain [1].

On-Chain Accumulation and Ecosystem Growth

On-chain data reinforces the bullish narrative. The migration from MATIC to POL is 97.83% complete, reducing sell pressure and consolidating utility in staking, governance, and cross-chain liquidity [4]. This transition has driven a 43% increase in TVL to $1.23 billion and a 25% rise in active addresses to 665,000 [3]. Daily transactions surged 8% to 4 million, reflecting growing network adoption [5].

Accumulation patterns are equally striking. A net buy delta of 16.1 million over two consecutive days in late August indicates institutional and retail buyers stepping in despite volatility [1]. Additionally, a 12% transaction burn rate is reducing supply, amplifying scarcity and demand [4]. These factors, combined with a 34% spike in 24-hour transaction volume to $315.7 million, suggest a coordinated buying effort [5].

Key Resistance and Trader Sentiment

Traders are closely watching $0.2355 and $0.2524 as critical resistance levels. A break above $0.2524 would confirm a broader bullish channel, while a sustained move past $0.38 could trigger a 300-400% rally to $1.70–$2.10 [3]. Short-term projections, however, remain more immediate: holding above $0.2190 is essential to avoid a retest of support, with October 2025 targets at $0.50–$0.58 [2].

Trader sentiment is cautiously optimistic. While bearish indicators like the Santiment Ratio (3.24) and declining derivatives open interest hint at lingering risks, the overwhelming technical and on-chain signals favor a reversal [1]. The migration to POL has also streamlined the ecosystem, with 45,000 dApps now deployed on Polygon, enhancing long-term utility [4].

Conclusion: Strategic Entry for Altcoin Season

Polygon’s technical and on-chain fundamentals present a rare confluence of factors favoring a strategic buy. The bullish divergence in RSI, MACD confirmation, and accumulation patterns align with a projected multi-month rally. With TVL, active addresses, and transaction volume all surging, the ecosystem is primed for sustained growth. Investors should prioritize entry above $0.2190, with stop-loss levels below $0.19 to mitigate downside risk. As Polygon transitions into a new bull cycle, the path to $1 appears increasingly probable—making MATIC a standout opportunity in the current altcoin season.

Source:
[1] MATIC Price Prediction: Targeting $0.50-$0.58 by October 2025 [https://blockchain.news/news/20250901-price-prediction-matic-targeting-050-058-by-october-2025]
[2] Polygon (MATIC) Signals Strength with Bullish Divergence [https://www.bitget.site/news/detail/12560604943606]
[3] Polygon (POL): A Post-Upgrade Buy Opportunity Amid Network Growth [https://www.ainvest.com/news/polygon-pol-post-upgrade-buy-opportunity-accumulation-network-growth-2509/]
[4] Polygon's Upgrade Drives Stablecoin Surge and Buyer Takeover [https://www.ainvest.com/news/polygon-upgrade-drives-stablecoin-surge-buyer-takeover-2508/]
[5] Polygon (POL) Technical Analysis - InvestX [https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/polygon-pol-technical-analysis-anticipating-upward-trend-next-few-hours/]