¿Es una buena inversión comprar acciones de Marvell Technology (MRVL) en 2026 por su crecimiento impulsado por IA?

In the rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape, value investors are increasingly scrutinizing undervalued plays with strong exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Marvell Technology (MRVL) has emerged as a compelling candidate, combining robust financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and a discounted valuation. This analysis evaluates whether MRVL merits a "Buy" rating for 2026, contrasting its fundamentals with peers like Micron (MU) and emphasizing its potential as a high-conviction value play.

Earnings Beat and AI-Driven Revenue Momentum

Marvell's third-quarter fiscal 2026 results underscore its AI-driven growth trajectory. The company reported record net revenue of $2.075 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP gross margins of 59.7% and diluted EPS of $0.76-surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.33% according to earnings data. The data center segment, a critical driver of AI infrastructure, contributed $1.52 billion (73.2% of total revenue), fueled by demand for custom XPU silicon and next-generation switch offerings. This segment's dominance highlights Marvell's ability to capitalize on the AI boom, particularly in cloud and hyperscale computing.

Looking ahead, Marvell's guidance for Q4 2026-$2.2 billion in revenue and $0.79 in non-GAAP diluted EPS-reflects confidence in sustaining momentum. Such consistency in earnings and revenue growth is rare in the volatile semiconductor sector, making MRVL a standout for long-term investors.

Strategic Acquisition of Celestial AI: A Game-Changer

Marvell's $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI, a photonic fabric provider, is a strategic masterstroke. The deal, structured as $1 billion in cash and $2.25 billion in stock, positions Marvell to lead in next-generation optical interconnects. Celestial's technology promises to revolutionize data center connectivity by enabling energy-efficient, high-bandwidth solutions critical for AI and cloud infrastructures. Analysts from Rosenblatt, Susquehanna, and UBS have endorsed the acquisition with "Buy" ratings, citing its potential to unlock new revenue streams.

The acquisition is projected to contribute $500 million in annualized revenue by the end of fiscal 2028, aligning with Marvell's long-term growth ambitions. This move not only diversifies Marvell's product portfolio but also strengthens its competitive edge against rivals like Intel and AMD, who are still grappling with traditional silicon-based architectures.

Institutional Backing and Analyst Sentiment

Despite mixed institutional ownership trends-some hedge funds have reduced stakes while others, like Danica Pension, have increased allocations-overall sentiment remains bullish according to market data. Wall Street analysts have assigned MRVL a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, with 43 total ratings, including four "Strong Buy" and 20 "Buy" calls according to analyst estimates. The average target price of $118.58 (ranging from $85 to $156) implies a potential 45% upside from current levels.

This optimism is further reinforced by insider activity and congressional trading, suggested by analyst commentary, suggesting confidence in Marvell's strategic direction. While institutional ownership data reveals some short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals-strong margins, AI-driven demand, and a transformative acquisition-justify a patient, value-oriented approach.

Undervaluation: A 33% Discount to 52-Week High

Marvell's stock currently trades at $81.71, approximately 33% below its 52-week high of $127.48. This discount, despite record earnings and a transformative acquisition, presents a compelling entry point for value investors. The stock's 52-week range of $47.09 to $127.48 underscores its volatility, but the recent pullback appears to be a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.

In contrast, peers like Micron (MU) trade at premium valuations despite similar AI exposure. Micron's Q1 2026 revenue surged 57% to $13.64 billion, driven by high-bandwidth memory demand. However, its gross margins (56%) lag behind Marvell's 59.7%, and its valuation multiples are significantly higher. For value investors, MRVL's combination of strong margins, AI-driven growth, and a discounted price offers superior risk-adjusted returns.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Buy for AI Infrastructure

Marvell Technology is a rare blend of financial discipline, strategic foresight, and undervaluation. Its Q3 earnings beat, Celestial AI acquisition, and institutional backing validate its position as a leader in next-generation AI infrastructure. While the stock's 33% discount to its 52-week high may reflect short-term market skepticism, the long-term fundamentals-particularly in data center connectivity-point to substantial upside.

For investors seeking exposure to AI-driven growth without overpaying for hype, MRVL represents a high-conviction buy. As the AI revolution accelerates, Marvell's photonic fabric technology and custom ASICs will likely cement its role as a foundational player in the industry.