Marvell's $1.64B Volume Ranks 46th as Stock Plummets 43% YTD Amid Data Center Caution and AI Order Volatility

On September 5, 2025, Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) closed at $64.10, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of $1.64 billion, ranking 46th in the market. The stock has declined 43% year-to-date, driven by cautious guidance for its data center business and volatility in custom AI accelerator orders. Recent delays in Microsoft’s next-generation AI chip development and Amazon’s shifting cloud market dynamics have exacerbated near-term uncertainty.

Marvell’s core strengths in AI infrastructure—custom ASICs and optical connectivity—remain intact. The company’s tailored solutions for hyperscalers offer cost and efficiency advantages, positioning it to benefit from long-term AI spending trends. However, near-term demand fluctuations, particularly in custom silicon for data centers, have created short-term headwinds. Amazon’s AWS, a key client for Marvell’s Trainium chips, faces competitive pressure from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, potentially delaying revenue visibility.

Analysts highlight Marvell’s valuation as a key catalyst. Trading at 40x trailing earnings and 23x estimated FY’26 adjusted earnings, the stock is undervalued relative to peers like AMD and Nvidia. With FY’25 revenue reaching $5.77 billion and projected growth to $13.7 billion by FY’28, driven by AI demand, the company’s margins could expand as fixed costs are absorbed. A 30% adjusted net margin would translate to $4.1 billion in net income, significantly outpacing current levels.

Recent earnings results underscore execution risks. Q2 revenue of $2.006 billion narrowly missed estimates, with data center sales falling short by $20 million. Q3 guidance of $2.06 billion, while positive, was below analyst expectations. However, Marvell’s early exit from its automotive Ethernet business and new custom silicon design wins signal long-term resilience. Analysts have revised price targets to an average of $90.50, implying ~40% upside despite the 19% post-earnings drop.

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