Marriott Vacations (VAC) and Its Competitive Position in the Post-Pandemic Leisure Travel Sector

The post-pandemic leisure travel sector has witnessed a dynamic shift in consumer behavior, with vacation ownership and exchange platforms like Marriott Vacations (VAC) navigating both challenges and opportunities. As the industry recovers, investors are scrutinizing key players such as VAC, Wyndham (WYND), and Interval International to assess their earnings resilience, valuation attractiveness, and strategic agility. This analysis delves into VAC's financial performance, competitive positioning, and expansion initiatives, benchmarked against its peers, to evaluate its long-term investment potential.

Earnings Performance: A Mixed Recovery

Marriott Vacations reported third-quarter 2025 results marked by a 4% year-over-year decline in consolidated contract sales to $439 million, driven by a 1% drop in tours and a 5% decline in volume per guest (VPG). Despite a net loss of $2 million ($0.07 diluted EPS), adjusted net income reached $66 million ($1.69 adjusted diluted EPS), with adjusted EBITDA of $170 million. These figures highlight the company's reliance on non-GAAP metrics to mask underlying operational headwinds.

In contrast, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts demonstrated stronger earnings resilience, reporting Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $213 million-a 2% year-over-year increase-despite a 5% decline in U.S. RevPAR. Wyndham's asset-light franchise model and focus on high-RevPAR markets have insulated it better from occupancy pressures. Interval International, a segment within VAC, reported a 16% year-over-year decline in Segment Adjusted EBITDA to $195 million in Q3 2025, attributed to lower development and rental profits.

Valuation Metrics: Undervalued or Overlooked?

VAC's valuation appears compelling to some analysts. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests an intrinsic value of $169.87 per share, implying a 70.1% undervaluation relative to its current price. Its price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2x is significantly below the industry average, further supporting the case for undervaluation. However, this optimism contrasts with Wyndham's mixed valuation profile: while its PE ratio of 16.0x is below the hospitality sector average of 21.2x, its EBITDA growth has been tempered by RevPAR declines.

Interval International's standalone valuation is less clear. As of August 2025, its PE ratio stood at 17.91, reflecting a premium to VAC but a discount to Wyndham. However, the absence of specific 2025 EBITDA metrics for Interval complicates direct comparisons.

Expansion Strategies: Innovation vs. Caution

VAC's strategic initiatives aim to reverse its earnings stagnation. Leadership has prioritized realigning sales incentives, curbing third-party commercial rentals, and implementing FICO-based screening to improve lead quality and VPG. Geographically, the company is expanding its Marriott Vacation Clubs in the Asia Pacific region, with new resorts in Khao Lak, Thailand, and Shanghai. A $470 million term securitization also underscores its focus on liquidity and financial flexibility.

Wyndham, meanwhile, has leveraged technology to drive owner success. Its Wyndham Connect PLUS platform integrates AI for guest engagement, while Wyndham Gateway generates ancillary revenue through Wi-Fi services. The company's development pipeline grew to 257,000 rooms in Q3 2025, reflecting aggressive expansion in higher-RevPAR markets. Interval International's expansion, though slower, has focused on Asia Pacific resorts and liquidity management, aligning with VAC's broader strategy.

Competitive Positioning and Risks

VAC's undervaluation and strategic pivot toward Asia Pacific position it as a potential long-term play, but its earnings volatility and reliance on adjusted metrics raise concerns. Wyndham's stronger EBITDA growth and technological innovation give it an edge in the asset-light hotel franchising segment, though its RevPAR challenges persist. Interval International's performance as a VAC segment highlights the risks of overexposure to development and rental cycles.

Investors must weigh VAC's discounted valuation against its operational headwinds, including asset sales and restructuring costs that could impact 2025 guidance. Wyndham's disciplined capital returns and pipeline growth, meanwhile, offer a more stable, albeit less speculative, proposition.

Conclusion

Marriott Vacations occupies a unique position in the post-pandemic leisure travel sector, balancing undervaluation with strategic reinvention. While its earnings performance lags behind Wyndham's, its aggressive cost-cutting, Asia Pacific expansion, and liquidity measures suggest a path to recovery. For investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility, VAC's discounted valuation and modernization efforts could unlock significant upside. However, Wyndham's operational resilience and technological edge make it a safer bet in a sector still grappling with macroeconomic uncertainties.