Marriott's Q4 Catalyst: Navigating Guidance Risk at a Valuation Peak

Marriott's next major test arrives on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, when the company reports its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. The event is timed for a 7:00 a.m. ET release, followed by a management call at 8:30 a.m. ET with CEO Anthony Capuano and CFO Leeny Oberg. For investors, this is a high-stakes catalyst, as the stock is positioned at a valuation peak with expectations already stretched.

The immediate market context is clear: shares have rallied sharply, up 9% over the past 20 days and 18% over the past 120 days. The stock now trades near its 52-week high of $331.09, with the current price hovering around $323. This momentum suggests the market is pricing in strong results. The setup is classic for an event-driven play-any stumble could trigger a sharp reversal.

This pattern of elevated expectations followed by a guidance reset is not new. In November, Marriott delivered an EPS beat but a revenue miss, which was overshadowed by a significant guidance cut that sent shares lower. That episode created a clear precedent: even a beat on one metric can be punished if forward-looking signals deteriorate. The market will be watching the February call for any hint of caution, particularly on the outlook for 2026.

The Core Question: Top-Line Strength vs. Forward Guidance

The market will scrutinize two key metrics on Tuesday: Q4 revenue and the full-year 2025 EPS guidance. The precedent is clear. In the prior quarter, Marriott delivered a beat on both EPS and revenue, yet the stock fell after management cut its outlook. The same pattern is likely to unfold again.

On the surface, the Q4 report shows strength. The company is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $2.45, beating the $2.37 consensus, and revenue of $6.43 billion, topping the $6.37 billion estimate. Management will highlight worldwide RevPAR increasing 5% year-over-year as a sign of resilient demand. This is the positive catalyst the stock has been priced for.

The central risk, however, is a repeat of the guidance reset that triggered the November sell-off. For Q1 2025, Marriott is expected to forecast EPS of $2.20-$2.26, which is below the $2.37 consensus. The full-year 2025 EPS guidance of $9.82-$10.19 also misses the $10.63 analyst estimate. The market has already priced in a strong finish to 2024. Any hint that the momentum is cooling for 2026 will likely be punished.

The setup is a classic event-driven trap. Strong reported results can be overshadowed by weaker forward-looking numbers, especially when the stock is already at a valuation peak. The February call will be the ultimate test of whether the demand story can carry through the guidance period.

The Tactical Playbook: Scenarios and Catalysts

The February 10 call will be a binary event. The market has already priced in a strong finish to 2024. The real catalyst will be management's commentary on what comes next. The setup creates clear scenarios for the stock.

A positive surprise would confirm the rally thesis. If Marriott beats on both Q4 revenue and, more importantly, provides full-year 2025 EPS guidance that meets or exceeds the current $9.82-$10.19 range, it would signal the demand story is intact. The stock's recent 18% climb suggests the market is ready to reward that confirmation. Any upward revision to the 2026 outlook would likely trigger a further pop.

The negative trigger is a repeat of the November reset. Any further cut to the full-year guidance or a Q1 2025 EPS forecast that dips below the already-light $2.20-$2.26 range would signal continued operational headwinds. Given the stock's elevated valuation, even a modest miss on the forward view could spark a sharp reversal. The market's memory of that November sell-off is fresh.

The key catalyst to watch is management's commentary on the development pipeline and near-term RevPAR trends. The company added a record 123,000 gross rooms in 2024, growing its net room count by 6.8% to over 1.7 million. Its pipeline now stands at 577,000 rooms at year-end. This expansion is a long-term growth driver, but it also introduces near-term supply pressure. Management's tone on whether this pipeline is being absorbed without eroding RevPAR will shape near-term sentiment.

The call will also assess the sustainability of the 5% worldwide RevPAR increase seen in Q4. If executives express confidence that this momentum can carry through the guidance period, it supports the stock. If they hedge on RevPAR or signal a slowdown in pipeline execution, it would validate the risk of a guidance cut. For now, the stock's peak valuation leaves little room for error.