Marlin/Tether Market Overview – PONDUSDT – 2025-09-22

• Price declined sharply in overnight trading before finding consolidation in the last 6 hours.
• Key support at 0.00800-0.00805 appears to be holding with no signs of breakdown for now.
• Momentum is waning as RSI approaches oversold territory, suggesting limited upside in the near term.
• Volume surged in the 6 AM - 8 AM ET window but has since normalized, pointing to potential short-covering.
• A bearish flag pattern is forming between 0.00850 and 0.00810, with a target of 0.00790 if the breakdown confirms.

Overview and Key Data

Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at 0.00865 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00866, a low of 0.00796, and closed at 0.00802 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 74,673,302.0, with notional turnover calculated as ~$598,450.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown from the 0.00840-0.00860 consolidation range, forming a descending triangle structure. Key support levels at 0.00805 and 0.00795 appear critical for short-term stability. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the 06:15–06:45 ET period, indicating continued bearish sentiment. A morning session doji at 0.00800-0.00802 suggests indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is bearishly crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing downward momentum. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) are all aligned bearish, with the 200-day MA acting as a key long-term resistance near 0.00860.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a bearish divergence with price as the histogram has flattened after an initial sharp decline. RSI is approaching oversold territory around 29, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, without a clear breakout above 0.00807, any rally appears to be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a moderate widening, indicating increased volatility in the overnight session. Price currently rests near the lower band at 0.00800, consistent with a potential overbought short-term rebound or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 6 AM–8 AM ET (15–30-minute windows), coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.00835 to 0.00815. However, volume has since declined to average levels, suggesting exhaustion on the downside. Notional turnover increased by 14% during this period, but no significant divergences are present.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the overnight high (0.00853) to the morning low (0.00796) show 61.8% at 0.00816 and 38.2% at 0.00834. Price is currently forming a base near the 61.8% retracement level, with a potential bounce or breakdown expected if volatility increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy leveraging bearish engulfing patterns and RSI-based oversold conditions could yield a high probability of short-term success in this setup. Given the current structure, a short entry at 0.00805 with a stop above 0.00810 and a target at 0.00795 may align with both candlestick and momentum signals. However, the strategy should be paired with a clear volume filter to avoid false breakouts, as seen in earlier 15-minute patterns.