Marlin/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from $0.0078 to $0.00752, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility and turnover increased during the early session.
• A key support level formed near $0.00754–0.00756.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions with potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume surged during the 17:30–18:00 ET session, indicating heightened selling pressure.

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Marlin/Tether (PONDUSDT) opened at $0.0078 and closed at $0.00752 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour range extended between $0.00781 (high) and $0.00751 (low), with a total volume of 43,466,546.0 and a notional turnover of $333,229.5. Price action reflects a bearish trend, with increasing selling pressure and a potential short-term bounce from oversold RSI.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours featured several bearish patterns. A key breakdown occurred around $0.00765, where a long bearish candle with a small body confirmed a shift in sentiment. A doji candle appeared near $0.00762, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion of sellers. The price found support at $0.00754–0.00756, with a strong rejection observed there.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remains below both lines, indicating short-term bear dominance. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines are still in alignment, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend is likely without a strong reversal candle.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram displayed a bearish divergence after a sharp drop in the morning session, with a significant negative bar confirming strength in the downtrend. RSI has dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions and potentially setting the stage for a short-term rebound. However, without a bullish reversal in price action, a sustained bounce remains unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the past 12 hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price has spent much of the session near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias. A bounce off the lower band could bring the mid-band back into focus as a potential target, but a break below $0.00754 could extend the current range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:30–18:00 ET session, coinciding with a sharp decline from $0.00771 to $0.00758. The high volume during this period confirms the strength of the bearish move. Turnover followed volume closely, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. No clear divergence between volume and price was observed, supporting the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the most recent 15-minute swing (from $0.00779 to $0.00753), the 38.2% and 61.8% levels fall near $0.00767 and $0.00760, respectively. Price showed signs of rejection near the 61.8% level, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, a larger bearish leg suggests potential for further support testing below $0.00754.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The short-term outlook is bearish, with price consolidating near key support at $0.00754–0.00756. A test of this level or a potential bounce off it could offer short-term entry points for bullish traders. However, a break below $0.00754 could extend the range further. Investors should monitor the 17:30–18:00 ET session for any reversal signs and be cautious of extended bearish momentum without a significant catalyst for a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a bearish breakout approach. Traders may look to enter short positions on a confirmed break below the $0.00754 support level, with a stop above the $0.00760 Fibonacci retracement level. A target for profit-taking could be set at $0.00749, aligning with the 61.8% retracement of the earlier bearish leg. RSI and volume would be used to confirm the strength of the break. This strategy assumes continued bearish momentum and no external bullish catalysts during the next 24 hours.