Los mercados se ubican en niveles más elevados en medio de la creciente inestabilidad económica y la cautela en cuanto a políticas

The S&P 500 finished December 15, 2025, at 6,847.68, slightly below its recent peak of 6,901.00. This modest decline reflected persistent market volatility. Investor mood, however, showed unexpected strength. The AAII sentiment survey indicated 44.6% of investors were bullish, up from 44.3% the prior week. This bullishness, while near a one-year high, sits above the historical average of 37.5%. Simultaneously, bearish sentiment at 30.6% remained below its recent peak but stayed above the 31.0% historical average.

This divergence between market performance and sentiment signals underlying unease. Fitch Ratings warns that intensifying geopolitical tensions are actively disrupting global trade. Conflicts in key shipping corridors and ongoing trade disputes are driving up logistics costs and causing supply chain breakdowns. These disruptions contribute directly to inflationary pressure and threaten broader economic growth. Investors face a fragmented landscape where trade-dependent sectors bear heightened vulnerability. The current market optimism, therefore, exists alongside tangible real-world frictions impacting corporate operations and consumer prices. This environment demands cautious capital allocation and a heightened focus on liquidity buffers.

Upcoming Economic Data Risks

The coming week brings critical US economic data that could significantly reshape earnings forecasts and market positioning. November's CPI reading, forecast at 3.2% year-over-year, sits perilously close to the Fed's 2% target, potentially reinforcing hawkish policy expectations if it exceeds projections. According to the calendar, this inflation pressure remains a primary driver of current market volatility, as investors weigh the likelihood of sustained rate hikes against emerging labor market weakness.

October and November payrolls, with November's projection at a modest 35,000 new jobs, signal growing fragility in the labor market. Such tepid hiring, particularly when combined with persistent inflation, could force the Fed into difficult policy calibration-prolonging rate hikes despite employment concerns. This tension directly threatens corporate earnings visibility, as higher borrowing costs squeeze profit margins even as consumer demand softens.

Complementing these US indicators, October's retail sales forecast at 0.2% point to stagnant consumer spending. With wages failing to keep pace with inflation, household discretionary spending remains constrained. This combination-sticky inflation, a weakening labor market, and sluggish retail activity-creates a high-risk environment where earnings revisions could accelerate downward.

Globally, central bank divergence adds further complexity. The ECB's projected rate hold contrasts with the BoE's anticipated 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%, while Japan's BoJ already raised rates to 0.75%. These conflicting signals amplify currency volatility and capital flow uncertainty, particularly for multinational corporations. European sentiment indicators like Germany's ZEW and Ifo indices suggest regional resilience but cannot fully offset global headwinds.

For investors, this confluence of data presents a classic risk dilemma: inflation could trigger further rate hikes that crush growth, while labor and retail weakness might prompt premature easing that fuels price surges. The earnings visibility window remains narrow, requiring heightened portfolio flexibility and defensive positioning.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve's latest projections paint a cautious path: policymakers see the benchmark funds rate settling at 3.6% through December 2025 before gradually easing to 3.1% in 2026 and holding there through 2028, ultimately targeting 3.0% long-term. This anticipated easing cycle contrasts sharply with the current inflation backdrop, where PCE inflation remains elevated at 2.9% despite expectations of a decline toward the 2% target by 2028. Simultaneously, economic growth has moderated considerably, with GDP projected to expand just 1.7% in 2025. This combination of sticky inflation and subdued growth creates significant uncertainty for funding costs, particularly for positions reliant on leverage. Investors holding leveraged exposure face the risk of higher-than-expected borrowing costs persisting longer than the Fed's median path suggests.

Global central bank actions compound this complexity, showcasing a lack of synchronized policy direction. While the Federal Reserve signals gradual cuts, the European Central Bank is projected to hold rates steady, creating a divergence. The Bank of England, responding to cooling UK inflation at 3.6%, may trim policy rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Most notably, the Bank of Japan has initiated a hike, raising its rate to 0.75%. This global divergence means capital flows face conflicting signals, increasing currency volatility and complicating cross-border financing strategies for businesses and investors alike.

Upcoming US economic data releases add another layer of potential disruption. The delayed November nonfarm payrolls report (forecasting 35,000 jobs added) and the November CPI report (forecasting a 3.2% increase) are critical touchpoints later in December. Fed officials' communications regarding these potentially higher-than-anticipated inflation readings could quickly alter market expectations for the pace of future rate cuts. This heightened sensitivity to incoming data, combined with the observed global policy split, means funding conditions for leveraged entities remain precarious. The patience embedded in the Fed's projections offers no guarantee against short-term volatility spikes if inflation proves more persistent than currently modeled, particularly when global central banks are moving in opposite directions.

Market Volatility and Operational Frictions

The market's recent sideways movement reflects growing unease. On December 15th, the S&P 500 traded in a tight 60-point range around its close at 6,847.68, failing to decisively break its own peak from just days prior. Investor sentiment, while slightly more positive on the surface as 44.6% felt bullish, shows underlying caution with bearish sentiment still near its recent low. This fragile balance spotlights the importance of underlying operational risks. Fitch Ratings specifically flags intensifying geopolitical tensions in key shipping corridors and trade disputes as major threats. These factors are already driving up logistics costs and disrupting supply chains across global trade-dependent economies. The result is heightened friction for businesses relying on smooth international movement of goods and materials.

This operational uncertainty acts as a significant guardrail against overly aggressive positioning. The narrow intraday range in the S&P 500 on Dec 15th, despite the index being near its peak, signals indecision and elevated volatility around fundamental issues like supply chain stability. Fitch's analysis suggests these shipping disruptions and cost pressures aren't isolated; they risk spilling over to dampen broader economic growth and further erode market sentiment if unresolved. While AAII sentiment shows some optimism, the historical context is crucial: bullish readings remain well below the extreme euphoria seen during April's peak bearishness, and bearish levels have only recently receded from that same high. This divergence means sentiment isn't fully pricing in the persistent operational frictions Fitch identifies. The combination of fragile market momentum and tangible supply chain risks makes defensive hedging an increasingly prudent strategy. Investors should prioritize cash reserves and downside protection, as these guardrails help navigate a landscape where operational disruptions pose a credible threat to corporate earnings and economic stability.