Market Upswing Ahead: ACT Research Forecasts 2025 Boom

The truckload market, after several years of rebalancing, is poised for a significant upswing in 2025, according to ACT Research's latest forecast. This optimistic outlook is driven by the normalization of equipment supply and the build-up of pre-tariff safety stock, which are expected to drive higher for-hire freight demand and rates. The market is nearing balance, with capacity contractions in for-hire fleets and slowing private fleet insourcing creating a favorable environment for rate increases.

Spot rates net of fuel are already 7% higher than in Q4 2023, indicating a market shift. Although contract rates are only modestly increasing, the overall trend suggests a tightening supply-demand dynamic. The anticipated normalization of equipment supply and pre-tariff safety stock build will further fuel this trend, leading to a market recovery.

However, the expansion of private fleets may temper the extent of the boom. These fleets absorb freight volume, reducing spot market pressure and delaying a clearer equilibrium until late 2025. As inventories normalize and consumer demand stabilizes, a more favorable rate environment could emerge, with potential demand increases in retail and e-commerce sectors driving freight needs.



ACT Research's projections account for the impact of private fleet expansion, acknowledging that it may limit the extent of the market upswing. Despite this, the for-hire rate recession is expected to be over by 2025, signaling a recovery in the truckload market.

For-hire fleets should adapt to the growing private fleet market by focusing on niches where they can offer competitive advantages, such as specialized equipment or expertise. Investing in technology to improve operational efficiency and customer service, as well as building strategic partnerships to expand service offerings and capacity, will also be crucial for success in this shifting market landscape.



In conclusion, ACT Research's forecast for a market upswing in 2025 offers a promising outlook for the truckload market. While the expansion of private fleets may moderate the extent of the boom, the normalization of equipment supply and pre-tariff safety stock build are expected to drive higher for-hire freight demand and rates. As the market nears balance and inventories normalize, investors should remain optimistic about the prospects for the truckload market in the coming years.