Market Overview for ZKCUSDC (Boundless/USDC) on 2025-10-12

• ZKCUSDC traded lower over the past 24 hours, closing at 0.1750 after hitting a high of 0.1886.
• Volatility expanded mid-cycle before compressing near 0.1750, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI.
• A 24-hour volume of 2.59 million units and $498,000 turnover suggests moderate activity with no major divergence.
• Key support appears to be holding near 0.1720, with potential for a test of 0.1690 if bearish momentum persists.
• MACD remained negative, suggesting bearish continuation unless price reclaims 0.1780.

ZKCUSDC opened at 0.1880 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1750 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1886 and a low of 0.1690. Total volume reached 2,590,404 units, and notional turnover amounted to $498,156 over the 24-hour window. The pair has traded in a clear bearish bias, with a strong downward trend confirmed by both price and momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

The price has formed several bearish patterns over the past 24 hours, including a notable bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart during the early hours of 2025-10-12, which confirmed the breakdown from a key resistance level near 0.1800. A long lower shadow near 0.1720 suggests a potential support level has formed, which may offer a temporary floor. The price appears to be in a strong downtrend, with a key horizontal support at 0.1700 and a critical resistance near 0.1780.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also below the 100-period MA, signaling a continuation of the bearish momentum. The 200-period MA sits well above the current price, suggesting the bearish trend may persist unless a strong reversal is confirmed above 0.1820.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for the majority of the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing consistent bearish momentum. The RSI has trended downward, dropping below 40 early in the session and dipping into oversold territory near 30, but without a clear bounce. This suggests that bearish pressure remains strong and any rally into 0.1780 may be short-lived.

The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the initial leg down, indicating a period of high volatility, but have since contracted as the price approaches 0.1750. The price remains within the lower half of the bands, which further supports a continuation of the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has been generally consistent throughout the session, with a notable spike near the 0.1700 level as the price tested the support. However, the corresponding close failed to confirm a strong rejection, indicating possible bearish exhaustion but not necessarily a reversal. Turnover has remained in line with volume, with no signs of divergence that would suggest a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1886 to 0.1690, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.1761, which has acted as a minor resistance level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level near 0.1770 has also failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the 50% retracement at 0.1788 may confirm further bearish continuation if failed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on ZKCUSDC when the price breaks below the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the previous swing low. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period EMA, while the target would aim for the next Fibonacci level or a 5% retracement from the entry. This strategy aligns with the current technical setup, where the price is below key moving averages and RSI is showing bearish momentum. Given the current volatility and alignment with the bearish trend, such a strategy could be effective for short-term trading over the next 24 hours, though a reversal remains a risk if the price reclaims 0.1780 and closes above it.