Market Overview for ZKCUSDC (Boundless/USDC) – 2025-10-11

• ZKCUSDC traded down 56.6% from 0.2689 to 0.1877 over 24 hours with a key breakdown below 0.2223.
• Price action shows a strong bearish bias after hitting intraday lows of 0.104 with massive volume surges.
• Volatility spiked sharply between 17:00–22:00 ET with over 5 million USDC traded in key bearish reversal clusters.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, but momentum remains bearish, with no signs of a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves further below the 20-period MA, signaling sustained selling pressure.

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.2689 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1877 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The 24-hour session saw a high of 0.2796 and a low of 0.104. Total volume was approximately 13.7 million USDC, with a notional turnover of around $2.6 million. Price action indicates a bearish continuation, with no immediate signs of reversal.

Structure & Formations

The breakdown below 0.2223 appears to have confirmed a major bearish shift, with the price falling through key psychological levels. A long bearish candle at 21:00 ET (closing at 0.2223) acted as a warning, followed by a massive downwave to 0.104. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed between 21:15 and 21:45 ET, while a long lower shadow around 02:00 ET failed to trigger a recovery. The price has yet to reclaim any prior bullish structures, and a key support level appears to be forming near 0.1877.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in steep negative territory, with price well below both. The 50-period moving average sits around 0.200, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD remains negative throughout the 24-hour window, with the histogram diverging lower as price continues to fall. The RSI has fallen to oversold levels below 30, but this has not triggered a bounce thus far, indicating the bearish trend may continue.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly after the sharp decline, with price now sitting well below the lower band. Volatility remains elevated, particularly between 17:00 and 22:00 ET, with massive volume surges and wide range candles. This expansion suggests continued selling pressure and limited near-term support.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked dramatically at key bearish turning points, such as the breakdown at 21:00 ET and the deep plunge to 0.104. Notional turnover was also elevated during these moves, confirming the bearish momentum. However, a divergence appears between volume and price in the early morning hours, as volume dipped while price continued lower—suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish move. That said, no clear reversal patterns have emerged to validate this exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.2796 to 0.104 shows the current price at around 61.8% of the retracement level. This suggests that the price may face initial resistance at 0.1877 if the trend begins to correct. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the previous bullish swing (not visible in this 24-hour window) could also serve as a potential area of resistance or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposed focuses on detecting early bearish reversal signals using a combination of RSI divergence and volume spikes. In this 24-hour period, the RSI fell below 30 and remained oversold, while volume spiked during key bearish moves. A potential trade trigger could have been initiated at the breakdown of 0.2223, using a stop-loss above the 0.230 level. The target for such a trade would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.1877, matching the current price level. This strategy would require confirmation of a reversal candle or a bullish breakout above the 0.190 level to exit with a profit.