Market Overview: Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Price opened at $0.01126 and peaked at $0.0115 before closing near the session low at $0.01117.
• A bearish divergence in volume and price emerged in the final hours of the session.
• Volatility increased midday, followed by a contraction in the evening hours.
• RSI moved toward oversold territory, indicating potential for a rebound.

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at $0.01126 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of $0.0115 during the session. The pair closed at $0.01117 at 12:00 ET after a bearish reversal in late trading. Total volume amounted to 22.9 million ZIL, while notional turnover reached $2.58 million during the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The session displayed a strong bearish bias, with a key intraday resistance forming near $0.0115 and support around $0.01117. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the final 15-minute candle at $0.01117, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or continuation of bearish momentum. A doji formed at $0.01131, signaling indecision and possible support clustering in that area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the price closing below both lines, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Daily data would suggest a possible retest of the 50/100/200-day MA confluence, but the current session’s action indicates the price is likely to remain below key averages in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover with both the line and signal below zero, indicating negative momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory, reaching a low of ~30, which could signal an oversold bounce. However, given the strong bearish volume divergence, the potential for a false rebound remains high, with further downside likely if the RSI fails to close above 40.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was moderate to high during the first half of the session, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band at $0.0115. In the latter half, volatility contracted, with price settling toward the lower band by close. This contraction could precede a breakout or continuation of the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged midday with a high-volume candle at $0.0115, confirming the initial bearish break. However, as price declined further, volume waned, pointing to weakening bearish conviction. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a peak at midday and a decline in the final hours. The divergence between price and turnover could suggest a potential short-term bottom is forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the session’s high and low, key levels include 38.2% at $0.01133 and 61.8% at $0.01118. Price closed near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible consolidation or reversal point. The 38.2% level could act as a minor resistance during a retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing pattern forms and the RSI drops below 40, with a stop-loss above the previous 15-minute high. Given today’s pattern and conditions, this approach appears viable, though confirmation through a test on historical data is necessary. The use of Bollinger Band contractions and Fibonacci retracements as confirmation tools could enhance the strategy’s robustness. The 61.8% retracement level and the 50-period MA could serve as dynamic exits or re-entry points.