Market Overview for Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) on 2025-11-04

Summary
• ZILUSDT consolidated within a narrow range, failing to break above $0.00695 or below $0.00681 on the 15-minute chart.
• RSI hovered near 50, suggesting neutral momentum but with no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands contracted, pointing to a potential breakout phase ahead.

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at $0.0069 on 12:00 ET − 1, with a 24-hour high of $0.00711 and a low of $0.00665, closing at $0.00687 by 12:00 ET. The total trading volume stood at 94,077,994.6 ZIL, with a notional turnover of approximately $643,800. Price action has been tightly contained, suggesting a potential for near-term directional clarity.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are converging, with the price currently trading slightly below both, indicating a potential bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, reinforcing a longer-term downward trend. The RSI at 50.2 suggests balanced momentum, but the MACD histogram is flattening, pointing to waning bullish energy.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have recently contracted, with price remaining near the middle band. This narrowing of the bands indicates a period of consolidation and could precede a breakout or breakdown event. If the price breaks above the upper band near $0.00703 or below the lower band near $0.00683, it may signal a resumption of trend action.

Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent 15-minute swing high of $0.00711 and low of $0.00665 suggest critical levels at 38.2% ($0.00694) and 61.8% ($0.00680). Price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level, indicating possible support or resistance in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume activity has been relatively steady, with no significant spikes that would indicate large-scale accumulation or distribution. Notional turnover has remained within a narrow range, aligning with the price consolidation. The absence of divergences between price and volume suggests the current range-bound behavior is supported by consistent participation.

MACD and RSI Behavior

The MACD remains near the zero line, with a weak bullish cross expected soon. RSI has hovered around the 50 level, indicating a neutral market with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that any directional move will likely be driven by external catalysts or breakout events rather than overbought/oversold exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of an RSI-based strategy on ZILUSDT from 1 January 2022 to 4 November 2025 reveals poor risk-adjusted returns. The total return of –86.6% and an annualised return of –18.5% underscore the underperformance. With a maximum drawdown of 87.8% and a negative Sharpe ratio of –0.31, the strategy is not profitable in its current form. Although average winning trades return +15%, the larger average loss of –24% and low win rate make it unsuitable without enhancements such as trend filters or stop-loss rules. The flat RSI and MACD suggest that a simple overbought/oversold approach may not succeed without additional confirmation or time-frame alignment.